Bobby you are going to be just fine, you have an eye to risk and it sounds like a SHTF plan as well, those are the key things missing from both TT (they espouse to not touch or to just keep rolling out/down when things start going wrong) and from Karen's original strategy. I think people are getting hung up on Karen and TT methodology/mantra in this thread and not realizing you have evolved. You just have to not get caught trying to hold on in one-way death moves, if you can do that and stick to the plan you will make money, there is no doubt that over the long haul premium is vastly overpriced in the U.S. index products particularly. I do something sort of similar to you for my premium selling (I use verticals/ICs on SPX), shoot me an PM if you want a link to my c2 strat (uses SPY for better bid/ask spreads for reporting) that I am just putting up for the hell of it, it is defined risk and will use 50% of risk capital for the defined risk. I think it would be an interesting benchmark for you to compare with on the risk metrics after awhile as we go forward I use a different methodology for adjustments/rolls/directional trading but I suspect you would find it more often than not lines up with "managing by the greeks" since those are all price action/time derived anyway except for interest rates. Target annual returns are 15-20% on total account (or 30-40% on the defined risk max loss).
The experiment is down $709.82 for the week. Theta is 463, delta is -551, and vega is -2185. T/V ratio is .21. I initiated 8 opening trades for the week and I closed 3 trades, all of which were profitable. Have a great weekend and Roll Tide! (Even though we have the week off!)
Here's how the experiment performed for October, 2016. The experiment was up 13.5% for the month (up $23,221.93). It is up 33% since inception on April 5, 2016. I had 42 opening trades and I closed 34 trades during the month. 100% of the closing trades were winners. My current Greeks are theta is 419, delta +475, and vega -1210. The t/v ratio is .35. Happy trading! Bobby
The ES will already be open. Similar to Brexit, I think a binary event like an election can be managed through the night. The ES didn't gap down--it was a drop over a few hours until it hit limit. If Trump is elected, I would imagine the drop will be of a similar character. 15 minute bars: