Discussion in 'Journals' started by Sweet Bobby, May 18, 2016.
Stop dicking around with this little experiment, and use real money now -- time is money,
Of course, 3 weeks before the election, where all hell can break loose, might not be the best time to start. As everyone seems to be cautioning, it sounds like it will only take one day where the market falls, and doesn't recover the next day, in order to kill this.
Don't get me wrong Bobby, I'm rooting for you, and I hardly know enough about options to comment like the experts in this thread, but it does seem like when shit hits the fan, those pennies you collected in front of the steamroller won't be enough to save you. I can't remember if it was Maverick or i960 who commented that the only reason why you did ok after Brexit was because the market rallied heavily on the Monday, but this comment really stuck with me.
So we shouldn't include Karen in the final conclusion?
Sorry if this a little off topic, but might be of interest to some:
'Why Karen the Supertrader lost millions'
This speaker needs to open a TOS account that has the "tools".
His back testing is wrong because Karen's supposed system
uses discretionary adjustments on market moves.
Charles Cottle is now on Vimeo and has a viewable video explaining
how to implement karen's system using limited risk option spreads:
Most interesting were Cottle's comments about Karen's supposedly
traded options either not existing or not Karen's claimed volume.
He thinks the spread version of Karen's system is actually pretty good.
Do you know anything about these guys? They're pretty good at critiquing Karen (after the fact, I think) and TT in general. But do they offer something that's safer and more profitable?
I plan to watch Cottle's video soon. It's interesting that his analysis was in 2013.
I know very little about options, came across the video by accident, but was impressed the guy was both going into a useful amount of detail and not grinding the 'vendor axe'
Seems to me KTST was covering paper losses by buying more options, but that tends to rule out discretion and only works until the inevitable margin call...
Sosnoff says options traders have to have a lot of small bets across multiple markets, much in the way a casino prefers lots of small bets rather than to have Bill Gates walk in and bet millions on roulette. Why do you feel you can ignore his advice? He publicly vouched for a trader that violated that and he got burned big time. Why do you feel that this rule does not apply to you?
Please, call me Bobby. For the majority of Sosnoff's career, he traded primarily one product. I'm sure he's enjoying his newfound freedom.
The experiment is following the lead of other successful funds who trade primarily in The S&P 500 such as Tony Caine of LJM Partners.
I feel the key here is to keep things small and manageable. I won't use more than 35% of my buying power. The account is tested 20% down with a 30 point increase in volatility. It is also stressed up 15%.
I have written rules and permissions so that the decisions have already been made in advance of any unforeseen circumstances.
I would highly recommend that anyone reading a strategy have a written plan to guide their decisions in times of extreme volatility.
The plan is to trade the market wherever it is. I really don't care if it goes up, down, or sideways. Wherever it is, I will be there waiting to put on a trade.
The experiment is managed by adjustments to the Greeks. This is not how I started, but I soon became intrigued at looking at the portfolio as a single, living entity instead of each of the individual trades comprising the portfolio.
By example, I manage the zoo- not the tigers and the elephants.
Sossy's trading career was keeping the bid/ask spread and hedging to go home Delta neutral. When that license to print money was going away he and others built TOS. When TOS was sold, he went on the trader education circuit. When that obligation expired, he founded tastytrade.
tastytrade gets paid by TD for customer acquisition, the trading you see on screen is simply content for the show (it is real but not needed to be profitable to serve its' purpose).
When you saw episodes of them with Jacob you saw their lack of knowledge same as when Scott Snyder used to come on. Actually it's a bit astonishing.
Separate names with a comma.