Karen the Supertrader - TastyTrade Hybrid Experiment

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Sweet Bobby, May 18, 2016.

  1. JackRab

    JackRab

    @CBC... why do statistics go out of the window? Any price has an implied vol... o_O
     
    #581     Aug 26, 2016

  2. to really give the whole story i would suggest looking at the complete report, including commercial.
    this has been lopsided many times to the non commercial end re short vol ; but despite that most will find no edge in fading that.

    http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacboelf.htm
     
    #582     Aug 26, 2016
  3. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    What does commercial vs non commercial mean on that?
     
    #583     Aug 26, 2016
  4. "commercial" is a trader or entity who has been classified as using that "particular" instrument for hedging purposes.
     
    #584     Aug 26, 2016
  5. CBC

    CBC

    I think that crossing the spread turns the trade into a statistical nightmare. Risk / reward / payoff.

    I always wondered what sellers do, do people even take their offers at the mid deep OTM?
     
    #585     Aug 26, 2016
  6. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    ah. commercial = hedger, non-commercial = speculator
    where does a MM fall?
     
    #586     Aug 26, 2016
  7. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    I never said there was an edge in fading that I simply said the entire world is short vol. I've never found any edge in fading any crowded trade. Crowded trades don't create edge, they create noise. And for most traders, noise is usually not a good thing. But different strokes for different folks I guess.
     
    #587     Aug 26, 2016
  8. JackRab

    JackRab

    Nope... doesn't matter at all... if you want a quick sell.. you hit the bid... if you can wait, you join the offer or place better offer. If you need to sell a lot and quick, you swipe the board...

    And why not in deep OTM? The spread is probably a lot tighter than anywhere else.. Remember, generally speaking the market maker has a theoretical value of the mid-price... so there's always the possibility of closing the deal at mid, otherwise sit just below to sell... But again, if you want to sell quick, hit bids..
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2016
    #588     Aug 26, 2016
  9. Maverick74

    Maverick74


    There is so much bad information in your posts I would highly recommend reading "Dynamic Hedging" as a starter and maybe even a Statistics for Dummies book. I'm being serous. There are some real fundamental flaws in your knowledge of simple math that I strongly advise you to fix sooner rather than later.
     
    #589     Aug 26, 2016
    Martinghoul likes this.
  10. JackRab

    JackRab

    Next thing he'll be saying the IV in puts is way too high, and should actually be lower than ATM because the outlier impact on 2-sdev and further never happens and is highly overestimated
     
    #590     Aug 26, 2016