70% of POP is the Probability of Profit (1 cent) at expiration. Since you don't hold until expiration, that is moot. Even if your POP was 70% of gaining your 50% mark (which it most definitely is NOT) it is a poor expectancy trade. It would be 70 trades for $1.04= $72.80 30 trades for $2.08= $62.40 10 bucks over 100 hundred trades before slippage and commissions. Does that really make sense to someone?
"Even if your POP was 70% of gaining your 50% mark (which it most definitely is NOT) it is a poor expectancy trade. It would be 70 trades for $1.04= $72.80 30 trades for $2.08= $62.40".... nice job illustrating expectancy.
Chatted with one of my buds from the yahoo Supertrader group. He was up 81% for 2017. Went from $100k to 181k, though he is down $20k for 2018. Put the odds in your favor and toss in some Greek management techniques and some prudent account management techniques. I am very happy utilizing the tastyworks platform so far, but I feel I won’t be able to generate my targeted return until they offer options on futures. They have started offering futures, but options on futures are not there yet. Happy trading!
Liquid futures markets can be simulated with ETFs (SPY, TLT, FXE, GLD, USO, etc), though admittedly without 1256 tax treatment.
I started using TOS a few weeks ago for options on ES and it's quite good. You get SPAN margin and 1256 tax treatment.
Selling Puts on the SPX is no different than owning SPX index. The risk is much higher Selling Premium. Selling Premium when Vol expands, is the same as buying a pullback. If you hedge it correctly, you can probably make 6% per year with little risk. You can do it un hedged and make 10% to 100% depending on how much risk you put on. But again, not much different than buying pull backs with no leverage, or tons of leverage. Selling premium in my opinion provides a false sense of security with very average returns...unless you leverage.
I would add, selling premium makes failing traders finally feel like they know how to trade. There are Pro's out there that sell premium... but if they simply are selling premium every other week...I'm sure they hedge to some degree. Some skilled traders sell naked... but perhaps that is at opportune times...not every week.
It’s all about prudent risk management and not trading too big. I no longer fear the market. I respect it!
You don't need to trade big, Sweet and Sour Bobby, ....in fact, big will come all by itself...all in due time, if you have a good sound strategy and experience and along with risk management. Time and compounding will make the smallest of snowballs and plant seeds blossom into a monster. Make big, without really risking big. Stick to the same proportions. Kind of like Albert Einstein with the atom formula, and subsequently...the discovery and use of the atom bomb, Make Trading Great Again 2018...Sweet and Sour Bobby. sparklers`, for everyone. Become a Rising Star trader, and High-Five` Karen ....that moment will be a TastyTrade archived sensation~
Wow! I just started following this thread. 80% profit by selling 20 delta strangles and ratio'ed strangles on an index, eh? Seems like the short call is giving a theta-decayed hedge. I've got to figure out how to incorporate this into my series of strategies. I had reviewed Karen's videos in the past, but at the time felt she had highly unhedged positions and theta decay was the only strategy for alpha. Need to revisit! How much does this correlate with the SPX or NDX? I'm trying very hard to de-correllate from NDX/SPX. Its at 0.67 and 0.53. Once my fund can get it below 0.5 against the indices (with positive equity curve, of course), I'll be a happy man.