Discussion in 'Journals' started by Sweet Bobby, May 18, 2016.
Old news. Next!
I'm quite confident that T&T have not had a profitable year since tastytrade began. Early on their scalping was pretty good until they really stuck to their hold until you're right BS.
I think they are still short ES from 6-700 points ago!
For my taste, selling naked options (capping your upside to increase you POP while not capping your downside) is bass ackward.
Of course...hindsight is 20-20.
Yeah, but what if the market was DOWN 20% last year ?
Just do a credit spread....that will cap the downside.
I believe the 4 legged version of this is called selling a condor....
We are going to see it this year...
I sold a strangle in FXI today for a 1.04 credit with 45 Dte. I will close it for 50% profit, or a loss of 2x the initial credit received, or after 22 days - whichever comes first.
My probability of profit on the trade is upwards of 70%. I like those odds!
I would recommend that you look at maximizing payoff instead of just probability of win.
payoff = probability of win * (reward/risk)
Not if you "bet the farm"...LOL.
What % of total capital did you risk ?
I don’t solely look at probability of profit. This was the best trade for me on the board today according to my criteria.
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