Karen the Supertrader - TastyTrade Hybrid Experiment

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Sweet Bobby, May 18, 2016.

  1. conduit

    conduit

    well, but you do know that your strategy will be blown away the next time volatility picks up meaningfully. I hope you are perfectly aware of that. Why you have done well recently was mostly because vol has been dropping like a stone. It was hard to impossible to lose money collecting premium. Most always the direct relationship between risk-reward holds even if in the short term it is not apparent. Let's see how you weather time periods when vol picks up.

    By the way, I said none of that with mean intention, I said it to warn you and hopefully be aware of the specific environment your strategy works and all the other times it does not.

     
    #101     Jun 1, 2016
    Sweet Bobby likes this.
  2. Excellent. Unlike people who need to follow someone else, I don't follow anybody and easily go against smartest people out there (if they tweet their ideas for example). So May was the best month YTD, took credit oil spikes with CL calls precisely (like 1 fails in 6), scalped ES hundreds times with high accuracy, cashed on SPY calendar spreads, VIX spreads, and swinged SPX for major moves, up to 30$ moves just in ES single trades and more in options. Everything logged on my twitter, including screenshots, while correctly describing the topping process day by day and reassuring many times <1month ahead that we will have 210 retry, while everyone else was loading strategic shorts for a suckers bear trap pullback. Short low, cover high. Not nice.
    Now in SPY 203-210 spread (and yes we keep the range), AAPL bear put (and yes we be flagging here), CL 50 call short @2.7 (50 magnet worked as suggested), and VIX long (for a nice leg up since eod). Far better mix than some bs Karen technique working only in one direction market.
     
    #102     Jun 1, 2016
  3. conduit

    conduit

    what is your twitter handle? And when you say you posted all your trades on twitter can we assume you mean in real-time? Thanks

     
    #103     Jun 1, 2016
  4. Amalgam

    Amalgam

    Looks like we've found the next person on the chopping block.
     
    #104     Jun 1, 2016
  5. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Oh, some interesting developments!!! I am still trying to understand what exactly has happened since 2014 October. I get the carrying over the unrealized losses. Some questions to be answered:

    1. How did they perform during 2015?
    2. Was their trading activity in 2015 mostly just the Scheme trades for covering up the losses and did they abandon the core strategy? Or did they do both?
    3. What if she just takes the 40-50% hit in 2014 and keeps carrying on?
    4. How come the 2 guys using real money in the Yahoo group made good profits in 2015 when volatility was twice as big as in 2014? (VIX maxed at 31 in 2014 and at 53 in 2015) As quoted in post #59, one of them made 18% last year.
    5. They must have thought that eventually they can make the loss back?
    6. The VIX was much higher back in 2011 ( maxed at 48) and Karen still made money (assumption?) so what was the difference between 2011 and 2014? Was it because the high water mark stipulation?

    I just found it curious that a relative small spike in volatility caused them to start the Scheme trades when volatility was much higher both before and after 2014 and the strategy seemed to perform well even in those times...

    I am really interested what those 2 guys have to say about this whole thing, Bobby, can you keep us posted? My guess is that Karen was actually worse at using her own strategy than those guys. Or she went greedy and overused the portfolio margin...

    Anyhow, I want Bobby to keep continuing this experiment and we shall see how it performs when we get into "more interesting times."
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2016
    #105     Jun 1, 2016
  6. DTB2

    DTB2

    4. How come the 2 guys using real money in the Yahoo group made good profits in 2015 when volatility was twice as big as in 2014? (VIX maxed at 31 in 2014 and at 53 in 2015) As quoted in post #59, one of them made 18% last year.


    Is there a link to these discussions?
    Thanks
     
    #106     Jun 1, 2016
  7. F_488

    F_488

    I would also like to see Bobby continue with his Journal.
     
    #107     Jun 1, 2016
    Sweet Bobby likes this.
  8. @conduit: yes and with threads so i can browse what happened before and before. No deletions. A new tweet thread reply is marked with continuation mark to make sure that is a thread with history. Realtime asap screenshots from the broker screen. Noone else does it but it's ok, i have it as a diary and reference. I don't share, you can try pattern-find me.

    @Amalgam
    :) classic.. who "we"? The 90% of losing traders? Ok then.

    That's why i come here only to solve technical stuff. But couldn't resist to unpuzzle that lady. And it's a great example how not only the retail herd, but also hedge funds are clueless how to profit from markets. They get tricked by a lady propped on some channel and once she gains the initial trust, she goes wicked:))

    >>enjoy Karen, who found magic in fixed income just like other failed traders who have no morale.<<

    or

    Stop following, start trading.
     
    #108     Jun 1, 2016
  9. Pekelo, as you can imagine there is quite the chatter in our yahoo group. Now that this news has come to light, I think I now know how we could never figure out exactly how she managed certain things. As I was driving yesterday, and even before I heard this news about Karen, I keep thinking "how can she possibly be 50% invested?" I am no where near that level and I feel that I am pretty much at maximum risk. I will keep you posted.

    Bobby
     
    #109     Jun 1, 2016
  10. I posted the link previously in this thread.

    Bobby
     
    #110     Jun 1, 2016