Why do you care what I care about? But in short*, I like facts. They are stubborn things. So here they are, short and sweet: Karen is a proven fraud, Tom didn't make his millions by trading. There, we can close this thread..... *In length, it is called misrepresentation. A newbie goes to Tastytrade because he heard that a multimillionaire is teaching option trading there. The obvious assumption is that the millions were made by option trading, but as we know.... Anyhow, I can't explain this any clearer, so I am done with the thread unless new FACTS come up.
Yeah about TS...how does a large portfolio of negative and no-edge strats magically transform into a winning system? Maybe the money is made by longevity and selling "how to do it..." Good work if you can get it!
Well, here are a few facts for you. If you're older than me (I'm 48, staring at 49 here shortly), then I know you're not one of these kids. Which means you should have an attention span to read it. So here you go. 1) Ok ... but you understand Observer-expectancy bias right? ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer-expectancy_effect ). So if you like facts? You have to admit, that you ... me ... everyone and their brother? Has a "skew" towards observer-expectancy bias. So you have to admit, that if you're going to be honest with yourself ... you could have an innate expectancy that you WANT what you see ... to fit your pre-existing thoughts. 2) There is no challenge there. We all agree on that. With the exception of the OP ... no one is saying she isn't. However, if you ever associate with someone that has committed a crime? I'm not going to automatically determine, that because you chose to associate with someone that committed a crime, that YOU are evil, and then make the leap to a logical fallacy that YOUR whole life is a lie. As a few of us have said, since this is a business move, is this a SERIOUS lapse in judgement for Tom? Yes. As a few of us have already said: and myself: By the way? I would apply that same 'giving the benefit of the doubt', to you or anyone. I've given people, in my own life ... the benefit of the doubt, and gave them another chance. Some of them, had served time. Does that make my entire life and everything about me ... a lie? I mean ... seriously? 3) That is what we call in the science of Textual and Observational Criticism, as a partial truth. Of course, he made the majority of his wealth, probably by selling ToS to TDA. $600 M if memory serves. But that he makes money trading, is almost beyond dispute. Let's just set aside the math of what he's doing, and as I stated here ... those concepts are without question sound. That, I would almost call a fact, that cannot be disputed. Let's just set that aside. Look up any of the names that were anywhere near the OEX pit back in the day, where Tom made markets. Anyone of them will tell you he made money constantly as a Market Maker in the OEX pit. God, how could you not. I remember trading back then, and if you were in a home office, spreads were so wide you could fit Moses and the Israelites through them. But if I had to leave facts, and go into mere speculation of the folks I know, and what I know of Tom from afar? I'd guess he probably made 1.6% of his current wealth, from Trading. That just a supposition ... and not a fact? But I do know he made money for years in the OEX pit. You don't even have to have the contacts I do in Chicago, that have been around for a while ... to sort of figure that out. So is your statement true? I'd say yes. Is your statement also false? Again, I'd say yes. You learn in the Observational Sciences, that such an outcome is possible. Criminology experts will tell you the same thing when it comes to reconciling Witness statements. And 1.6% of his current wealth? Is still a sizeable sum. 4) As we outlined before? Since the mathematical concepts of what he is discussing is sound? It really doesn't matter what his current P/L is.
I lived down the street from Sosnoff when TOS was just getting off the ground. Sheridan and Sosnoff were post-brokers at the CBOE. Tom opened my account, in person, in 2000. So I've met the guy twice, talked to him a handful of times on the phone, and some email. Those interactions are the extent of our contact. From what I've seen and heard I cannot imagine the guy is profitable and I don't care. I have not bought into his snake oil so there is no confirmation bias--I am not nor will ever be a client (of TT). The guy was promoting some trade where he was recommending some call short because the same strike puts were cheaper on vol... yeah. The most basic arbitrage you can trade in vol (conversion). A CBOE broker with a couple decades of experience and he ignores p/c parity? Promoting a nine-figure fraud that doesn't know her delta-position? Run, don't walk. Oh yeah, Sweet Bobby is still trading one lots--as are 99% of Tasty clients.
LOL 'old man', you seem to be enjoying life under the palm trees... and yes... life it too short to sweat it about TS' good (or mis) deeds, or the trading records of XYZ... I agree, none of that is truly relevant to your ability to enjoy life.. I'll drink to that..
raVar seems to have blocked me from reading his threads when I am logged in ... probably one of Sosnoff's fanboys In previous posts, raVar has stated #1 ... he likes facts and #2 ... he is very critical of data / backtesting that doesn't go back at least 11 years Well ... a couple of facts to consider #1 ... there is no doubt that Sosnoff created most of his wealth from Market Making / Selling TOS #2 ... Sosnoff has not been a MM for at least 20 years #3 ... Sosnoff has been a 'retail trader' for at least the last 11 years, if not longer #4 ... there is NO EVIDENCE that Sosnoff has made money as a retail trader #5 ... when asked to provide such evidence, Sosnoff refuses to do so, claiming that there are compliance restrictions that prevent him from doing so #6 ... every trader he has personally mentored under the "Where do we start" series has either blown up completely or lost money using the 'Tasty Trade' method he tries to teach I admire Sosnoff's many achievements and enjoy some of the 'entertainment' value in his show ... but there is absolutely NO EVIDENCE that Sosnoff has made money as a retail trader
Not a serious back test, because I didn't document the actual positions in a spread sheet. This is during Aug. 2015 crash. Around June 2015 I put on 1 short put every time a contract hit 56 DTE. I'm going from memory, but K. Bruton's strategy is 6 delta short put every 56 DTE. Let the position expire worthless. This is where I'm am unsure how the positions are adjusted but if the deltas increase to 30, then the position is rolled further out in time while trying to get further away from the market, the new position was overall a net positive credit I think I had a max of $25K drawdown, but in the picture above the losses were starting to get chipped away. I stopped before moving on till early 2016