1.He only lost by 500,000 votes,not millions.He also wasn't that hated and had higher approval ratings than Trump.The GOP also won the House by over 3 million votes in 2002 which suggested he wasn't that hated.Trump lost the House by 10 million votes in 2018 which suggest that he is. 2.Bush is only 1 of 4 to lose the popular vote and get a second term.Not good odds especially when you lost by 3 million the first time and lost The House by 10 million two years later.
The Trump era is an enigma, though. I would caution both sides not to get overconfident. While I would normally be inclined to agree with you that it doesn't look good for Trump based on previous elections, we're in new territory. Politics has become a lot less civilized and there are many closet Trump voters who would never dare say they would vote for Trump, but come election day they do. Trump has also driven the democrats to insanity. Policies that the democrats would NEVER have supported in the past are suddenly on the table. I believe this is in an attempt to pander to the voting base that wants to "stick it to Trump" with the most outrageous policies they can think of. Also keep in mind though that while you're quoting the past to predict the future, also remember that no president has ever lost a second term when the economy has done well. While there are still many who get outraged over Trumps tweets, many people have developed a sort of "tolerance" towards him. People are definitely not as outraged as in 2016 and I don't think there will be much of a turnout for democrats in 2020. I don't see anyone that democrats are getting excited about. It's looking like its going to be rigged for Biden anyway which is a good thing I suppose because he'll uphold Trumps immigration policies and quietly finish the wall without any fanfare should he win.
2018 would suggest otherwise.Dems had the largest turn out ever and it wasn't for Democrat candidates but to stop Trump.Democrats were never enthusiastic enough to win The House under Obama but disapproval of Trump got them to the polls to stop his legislative agenda. No President has had approval ratings this low and lost The House by 10 million votes with a good economy so I don't think that will save him.Trump gets little credit for the economy because he inherited it imo. While we on history no President has won re election with a first term average approval rating less than 49,Trump is at 40,lower than Carter and Ford.He has never ever had a 50% approval rating in Gallup or RCP or 538 aggregate polls,the only president never to do so.Also since polling began no president has won re election with a higher disapproval than approval rating,Trump has had a higher disapproval than approval rating his entire presidency.
You should look at all data if you want to come to a foregone conclusion like that. Biden is the best chance to beat Trump, but Bidens approval rating is also less than 49. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/joe_biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html And while Bidens is slightly higher than Trumps, it's still within the margin of error. I don't know if you've noticed this either, but polling the last few years has been a little over sampled for democrats and under sampled for independents so it's quite hard to trust the validity of the polls. I also think Biden is going to hurt the women vote. Just like women didn't want to vote for Trump because of his pussy grabbing comment, the fact there are so many videos of Biden out there getting a little too touchy with women(and children) will probably put a few women off from voting for him. (not that they will vote for Trump, but they'll probably stay home or vote 3rd party.)
Bidens favorable is +5.5,Trumps is -10.1.Thats a big difference. Hillary's favorable was -12.6 and many think that her being more unfavorable than Trump is what won it for Trump.If a 2.5 point difference won it for Trump a 15.4 point difference is huge for Biden. I don't think its hard to trust the validity of the polls,they are right far more than they are wrong. Biden is polling much higher than Trump with women. Biden is likely to pick a women as VP.Dems won by +19 points with women in 2018.Dont think women will be a problem for Dems in 2020
None of the other dems seem to want to go there, but you can bet Trump will make a big deal out of Biden's son being bought by the Chinese. In yet another of those fortunate things that seem to fall into Trump's lap, it also confirms his claim that the Chinese are slow-playing him in the trade negotiations because they own Biden. It is a bit odd that we prosecute American companies for hiring the children of Chinese big shots to get business, but the Chinese can go directly into business with American pols or their families, eg Biden, Dianne Feinstein, Mitch McConnell, and no one blinks an eye.
Before this latest round of tariffs American households were paying a little over $800 a year in Trump tariffs taxes. This latest round should push it over $1,000 per annum.
We'll see. If Biden does win, he'll be a 1 term president. Right now is the longest period in American history that we've gone without a recession. We're due for one and it's very likely to happen soon. If it happens before the election, Trump will definitely be out. If it doesn't happen until 2021, well, whoever is president then will catch hell. Personally I think Trump can fend off the recession until 2024. We've been doing great financially under him.
I'd like to see the breakdown on that. If what is referred to as a price increase at HomeGoods, nope. BTW Americans spend a lot of money on just effing junk. Maybe it's time to do a bit of soul cleansing and quit buying shit. If that's what this all leads to, so be it. Happy Meals toys aren't worth the crap in a kid's stomach.
You sound like you are advocating the government use its power of taxation to manipulate the behavior of Americans.