Let's see how much of this holds in 2 weeks out: ---------------- " Prices for U.S. and global benchmark crude oil settled Monday at the highest in almost three years, and natural-gas futures rallied back to levels not seen since February 2014, buoyed by tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand. “Both oil and natural gas are expected to continue higher in the months ahead as fundamentals decidedly favor the bulls right now, while momentum and technicals both point to higher prices in the near to medium term,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. U.S. crude inventories have fallen sharply in recent weeks due to the lingering impact of Hurricane Ida on energy operations in the Gulf Coast region, he told MarketWatch. For natural gas, weather is almost always the biggest influence and “with expectations for a very cold winter this year, utilities and physical traders are stockpiling natural gas at a historically elevated rate,” he said. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has boosted its Brent oil price year-end target to $90 a barrel, citing the lingering impact of Hurricane Ida on supply while demand ramps up, particularly in COVID-averse Asia. “From a futures market standpoint, bullish energy calls from big banks including Goldman Sachs and major oil traders like Trafigura are helping invite speculative bids into the market as well,” said Richey. November Brent crude BRNX21, +0.43%, the global benchmark, rose $1.44, or 1.8%, to settle at $79.53 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. December Brent BRN00, 0.46% BRNZ21, 0.46%, the most actively traded contract, added $1.49, or 1.9%, at $78.72 a barrel. November West Texas Intermediate crude CL00, 0.49% CLX21, 0.50% rose $1.47, or 2%, to settle at $75.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Both front-month WTI and Brent crude contracts finished at the highest levels since October 2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, led by Damien Courvalin, lifted their year-end forecast on Brent crude-oil to $90 a barrel from a previous forecast of $80, citing the aftereffects of the storm and rising demand, particularly in Asia. The analysts said Ida should prove to be the most bullish hurricane in U.S. history, canceling the ramp-up in OPEC+ output since July. At the same time, global oil demand is back to converging to pre-COVID levels. Traffic congestion in China quickly recovered after a summer dip. The delta-driven decline in global flights was smaller than the analysts initially feared. For almost all of this year so far, the crude market has been “biased towards undersupply,” said Robbie Fraser, global research and analytics manager at Schneider Electric, in a note. “There are concerns that supply could become even tighter as temperatures cool across the northern hemisphere.” Fraser added that there is a unique challenge this year in the form of record natural gas and liquid natural gas prices in Europe and East Asia. “That’s expected to make alternative options like diesel, fuel oils and propane much more attractive if buyers have some flexibility in heating options.” Among the oil products traded on Nymex, October gasoline RBV21, +0.08% climbed by nearly 1.7% to $2.224 a gallon and October heating oil HOV21, +0.44% rose 1.3% to $2.296 a gallon. Natural-gas futures, meanwhile, rose 11% on Monday. “An upgraded probability of a second La Niña event this winter will keep gas buyers scouring markets for supplies,” said analysts at BCA Research. October natural gas NGV21, +5.91%, which expires at the end of Tuesday’s session, climbed 57 cents to settle at $5.706 per million British thermal units. Prices topped the settlement from Sept. 15 to mark another front-month contract finish at the highest since February 2014. Both oil and natural gas are expected to “continue higher in the months ahead as fundamentals decidedly favor the bulls right now, while momentum and technicals both point to higher prices in the near to medium term,” Richey said. For Brent crude, “our next upside target is $88/barrel on the back of the latest run to multiyear highs, while WTI is also seen moving into the mid-to-upper $80s in the weeks ahead.” The medium- to longer-term target for natural gas, based on the weekly chart, is $7.80, said Richey. from Marketwatch
update on TMUS short idea They were $144 I made the post due to their lack of ethics - neither using file segregation nor encryption. I haven't noticed the govt or regulators take action or launch criminal prosecution. Nor have I seen any class-action lawsuits being launched. (Are all you lawyers sleeping?) They are now $127 Breaking $127 on weekly close signals down - IMHO
From market watch: "SIFMA, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, is the industry association that deals with the mechanics of how securities like sovereign bonds trade and settle. The group has worked with financial infrastructure providers including Fedwire and FICC to try to devise some sort of playbook. For now, there are two possible scenarios: If the Treasury Department knows that it will miss a payment, it would ideally announce that at least a day in advance. That would allow the maturity dates of the bonds in question to be changed: a Monday maturity date would be changed to Tuesday, a Tuesday maturity would be changed to Wednesday, and so on. These revisions would happen day by day. While that sounds relatively orderly, it still leaves many unknowns. For one thing, it could bifurcate the market for Treasury bonds and bills into those that are clearing normally and those whose maturity dates are being massaged, SIFMA told MarketWatch. That means a great deal of uncertainty around pricing and what it means for all the downstream securities pegged to Treasury rates. In a second scenario, which SIFMA said would be very remote, Treasury cannot, or does not, give any advance warning of a failure to make a payment, and it just happens. That would be far more chaotic, “a real problem scenario,” as SIFMA says. Strangely, the securities in question would probably simply disappear from the system. That’s because if a bond is supposed to mature — and be paid — on a particular day, the system assumes it has been. “It just illustrates the fact that the system wasn’t designed for this,” SIFMA notes. If that happens, there would be a holder of record for the debt on the day before the maturity was scheduled, who would be entitled to get paid. However, it’s also likely that Treasury might pay some additional interest to make the bondholder whole. Many analysts, including Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi, think it’s highly likely that a financial market freak-out — think of the day in 2008 when Congress initially failed to pass the Troubled Asset Relief Program legislation meant to address the financial crisis — would stop any of the scenarios SIFMA envisions before they happen, or a few minutes after midnight on the day they will. What Koltun calls a “game of chicken” also may already be denting the economy. The last two times Congress came close to not raising the debt limit, in 2011 and 2013, Moody’s Analytics found, “heightened uncertainty at the time reduced business investment and hiring and weighed heavily on GDP growth. If not for this uncertainty, by mid-2015, real GDP would have been $180 billion, or more than 1%, higher; there would have been 1.2 million more jobs; and the unemployment rate would have been 0.7 percentage point lower.” Uncertainty rippling through the Treasury market in 2013 cost taxpayers anywhere from $40 million to $70 million, Barclay’s reckons."
This is quite the switch for Gary. He usually doesn't make such bold predictions. Maybe he is pretty spot on.
an article on RY. It speaks of the Cdn housing bubble and residential mortgage exposure. I didn't know that non-recourse mortgages are only in Alberta and Saskatchewan. --------- Finally, it might be worth noting that outside of the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan (which together account for about 15% of the population of the country), mortgages in Canada are recourse loans, meaning that the lender can go after other assets if the mortgages value exceeds the value of the residential real estate. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4625554-royal-bank-canada-and-the-residential-real-estate-monster One can see how out-of-line Cdn house prices are to disposable income in Canada.
The company, which to date has only sold approximately 19,000 electric vehicles and was mercilessly mocked by car reviewers, https://jalopnik.com/everyone-agrees-the-vinfast-vf8-is-very-very-bad-1850432490 EV makers Lucid and Rivian boast strategic backers such as Saudi Arabia and Amazon. Trading under the “VFS” ticker symbol at its Nasdaq debut this week, shares in the carmaker swelled to a $65 billion market cap, briefly placing it ahead of Ferrari as the eighth most valuable carmaker in the world. “Today’s successful listing not only supports VinFast’s commitment to sustainable mobility at a global scale, but also unlocks access to the capital markets and important avenues for future development,” said its CEO, Le Thi Thu Thuy, who is in the process of building a new $2 billion manufacturing plant in North Carolina. That marked the biggest debut for a new EV startup since Rivian founder R.J. Scaringe took his company public in the biggest IPO of 2021. By comparison, VinFast took the easier route to floating its shares on the growth-oriented Nasdaq stock exchange. By combining with an already listed special purpose acquisition company called Black Spade, it avoided the conventional path of an initial public offering of shares that comes with arduous disclosure and transparency requirements. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ev-startup-vietnam-barely-sales-162046956.html
In trading our state of mind is important --------------- How to Deal with Toxic People https://www. youtube.com/watch?v=o-uSpC5kTcE