Just starting, how do you guys size up?

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by FastandFurious, Aug 9, 2006.

  1. K-Pia

    K-Pia

    Size's more important than entry points.

    What you need to know to size up:
    - MLS : Max loosing Streak
    Knowing that the future ain't shiny,
    You're allowed to multiply it by x>=2
    - MP : Maximum pain
    How much are you willing to lose ?
    0,25 % of your capital ?
    0,5% of your capital ?
    If 0,75% then
    MP = 1-(1*0,75)=0,25

    What you will know:
    - z*100 : How much you can bet (%)
    According to your worst case (MLS)
    and your MP threshold

    Solve for z
    (1-z)^{MLS}=MP

    Exemple:
    -MLS = 20*3 = 60
    -MP = 1-(1*0,5) = 0,5
    (1-z)^{60}=0,5
    z = 0,011*100 = 1,1

    So I can bet 1,1% of my capital without going ever broke ! If my implied MLS is strictly inferior to my future realized MLS.

    Otherwise there is the Kelly Criterion !
     
    #21     Jan 25, 2016