Wrong. Here ya go. I've been trading this a couple years. No, I don't trade it with millions. It's done very well. It's not even my best system. Maybe I should hawk my stuff on C2? No F'in way! My systems are actually tradable and THEY WORK... Annualized Gain: 44.42% Max Drawdown: 16.64% <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2217719 width=800>
Are you the guy who uses a 5 period moving average on a 5 minute chart and uses the extremes of mean to help on entries ? What are you looking at/for when you change your trade size?
look at my equity curve attached to the post, it shows upward equity since July 2000 to Oct 2008. you stupid, lazy, dumb f*ck!
You do realize that there are different ways to use TA (technical analysis). * Discretionary * Mechanical * Automated Regardless if someone uses TA or not... Only a small percentage of traders are profitable. Also, from what I've seen about the small percentage of profitable traders... Most of them are discretionary traders that have a strong understanding of the markets... An understanding that can't be backtested but can be validated via their consistent trading results. Mark
These are the results of trading simulation using 46.83 years of General Motors Corporation daily closing price data. Heat is 5 %, initial capital $ 100,000, assuming $ 10 commission per trade. Buy when price value increases 10% Sell when price value decreases 10% Total Profit $ 54088 Buy when price value increases 15% Sell when price value decreases 15% Total Profit $ 228424 Buy when price value increases 20% Sell when price value decreases 20% Total Profit $ 217186 Buy when price value increases 25% Sell when price value decreases 25% Total Profit $ 83722 Buy when price value increases 30% Sell when price value decreases 30% Total Profit $ 27906 Buy when price value increases 35% Sell when price value decreases 35% Total Profit $ 29628 Buy when price value increases 40% Sell when price value decreases 40% Total Profit $ 91331 Buy when price value increases 45% Sell when price value decreases 45% Total Profit $ 204733 Buy when price value increases 50% Sell when price value decreases 50% Total Profit $ 148791 === I find lots of methods show profitable simulation results. I also recall hearing stories about people losing money in the stock market. If it is not the mechanical system that loses money then the problem might be in the human part of the system. People might not follow their own rules.
I am with you on this one Mark. In order to back test, the devotee writes a strategy to the best of his/her ability. Any variable (and there are many) that is not accounted for in the coding is thus treated as a fixed value in the back testing. Thus the entire outcome balances on a small proportion of big winners. I might add that a discretionary approach using a mechanical strategy should convert all fixed values into variables. Oh the sheer power of the human mind. Also bear in mind that the devotee's propensity for risk should never be allowed to remain a fixed value. It must be accounted for as a variable if the outcome is to have any value beyond being just another computer game. Ironically, I imagine that people who spend years coding and backtesting strategies have a very low propensity to identifiable risk and are thus unsuited to trading. This does not deter them in any way and they box on building back tested strategies that they cannot bring themselves to trade. If that amount of time and energy was devoted to the real time screen, they may eventually overcome their fear of reality and turn it to their advantage. regards f9
Stochastic trading system. Buy if stochastic value is greater than 80 %, sell if stochastic value is less than 20 %. In this example I use General Motors Corporation daily closing price data (46.83 years). Risk is 5 %, initial capital $ 100,000, assuming $ 10 commission per trade, assuming 1 % slippage. 60 day stochastic Total Profit $ 2412 80 day stochastic Total Profit $ 38942 100 day stochastic Total Profit $ 52526
I'm pretty sure I can beat you tonight with Superbands. I'll use the S&P 500 instead of only 100 stocks from the NASDAQ100, and since DD's will be about the same, I'm pretty sure I can hit a higher APR with same DD.