I look at the 414 ATH from Nov 2021 and where the company was then, discount for some exuberance and project realized milestones into the future. This leads me to believe 300 is achievable this year, 400 next year and 500 in 2025 with a split. I could dive into business segments and expectations but that would take too long. Of course, lots of things could throw this growth, from wars to pandemics and more.
Check out the last YouTube video I put on the Tesla 2023 thread (starts at 10:40). Ford's Farley himself explains in detail why Tesla is today's manufacturing powerhouse.