What they never talk about is American consumers always have the last say on which products they buy. This was like 7 years ago. I needed a frying pan. One made by China cost $9.99, another by Thailand cost $14.99. I bought the US made one for $29.99. Now, I figure that $29.99 will last longer and cheaper over the long haul. Also, made by fellow Americans too. To be fair, the US is in a weaker state now due to Joe Biden and his abuse of sanctions. Over 20,000 on Russia and Putin is laughing at the US. Additional sanctions on China by Joe Biden on the case of US computer chips on China has resulted in a ban on exports of rare earth minerals to the US, China buying soybeans and corn from Brazil instead of the US. Advised President Donald Trump on Twitter to use tariffs sparingly, as they have lost a lot of its past effectivity.
Even Canada is reducing immigration: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd7n3rqyjqzo LOL It's still admitting 500K a year though. Yeesh!!
Sure, to a certain extent. But they don't make up a significant portion of the overall population to tip the economy into a recession. This would be different from Fortune 500 companies slashing tens of thousands of high paying jobs. But then again, these illegal immigrants do play a pivotal role in the smooth operation of this country's economy. From flipping burgers at McDonald's to picking cherries at a local farm, and even cutting your lawn every week, all the menial jobs are done by the Hispanics. Whether you like them or not, this economy can't function without them. Even worse, once they're all gone, who's left to fill the void? White class? Asians? I highly doubt it.
More and much higher% tariffs are coming after Biden leaves, but of course he will get the blame for it. Dotard heads I win tails you lose, lose, lose, lose lose, lose. Lose 6 times for the number of times he has declared bankruptcy.
I do take your question seriously. I think IF (bif IF) he actually imposes larger tariffs (Biden already imposed some tariffs on China) on China and specially on others (Canada, WTF?) and manages to deport 30% of illegal immigrants, inflation will jump to COVID bottleneck levels. But... Part I 1) Did he build the wall? 2) Did Mexico pay for it? Part II Price increases from tariffs are different from price increses from bottlenecks, because: 1) Tariffs many times are "suspended": they are charged temporarily but later can be retracted (after an antidumping investigation shows there was no actual dumping, for example), or on the contry, further increased retroactively. 2) Tariffs can be removed overnight (bottlenecks usually take much longer). Should there be high inflation, he can declare victory and drop the tariffs any time he wants. And still get credit for whatever the f... 3) Bottlenecks due to scarcity tend to lead to hoarding, expectations of higher prices (in a market with abundant supply) not so much (not in your case, it seems, but a) you're old and b) you can afford to front the money, many people can't or won't). Part III While I see a high probability of the new US government imposing a wide range of tariffs, the chances of mass deportations (in comparising to record-breaking deportations by Obama, that is, cue presidential inauguration crowds comparisons, etc.) are way lower. Sure, they will make a show of it and the crueler the method and the images the better/worse, but... Now, let's say that he does manage, not just to seal the border (and good luck with that), but also to deport a large percentage of illegal immigrants (30%? anyone really thinks he will deport 80 or 90%???). Will that lead to runaway inflation? Maybe, maybe not. Somebody mentioned in this thread that fewer immigrants, less consumption, less inflation. I don't think that's the case as he put it, because illegal immigrants make little, spend way less than the American middle class and send the rest of the money back home. But... If he manages to kick out a few million, that puts some downward pressure on a bunch of things. Those people will go to work somewhere else. Let's say they go to work in farms in Mexico. Will this depress wages in Mexico? Will this end up in lower prices for imports? And on and on... So in my view too many knock-on effects to know what will eventually happen. But I do agree with you that, in principle, IF he does what he said he will do, inflation should go back with a vengeance, at least for a while. --------- An end to the war of agreesion by Russia on Ukraine and/or the beginning of a war on Iran will be the key factors in 2025, imho. ------- Actually, in Europe, when the war on Ukraine started, sunflower oil multiplied its price by 4 or 5.
Possibly, but I don't think that will go down well with Trump. I seriously believe Trump wants China to become poor again, even if the US will get hurt in the process. The danger in this is that it could spiral out of control and precipitate war, which nobody needs or wants. As to your other issues you raised, I agree completely.
It would be best if you changed careers, it is obvious that the deep analysis and great advice that people could get from you are wasted here. https://www.indeed.com/career-advice/finding-a-job/how-to-become-political-consultant
By the time you become an old fart like me, you too will be able to read between the lines. Have a great weekend.
From what I remember reading, he was specifically only addressing those that came over in the past 2 years. The onus was going to be on them to prove that they have been here for more than 2 years. Therefore, I think the target is mostly people who are currently living rent free in hotels and getting everything paid for. The ones you describe who actually have jobs have likely been in the US for many years, and although they are still perhaps not documented, they would likely not be at the front of the deportation line. It is absolutely true that the shit jobs someone needs to do. This reliance on bringing in just higher education people makes no sense to me because if anything, we would like to see the locals get the better jobs, while the immigrants get the lower paid but necessary work. At any rate, I'm with you that instant tariffs will lead to inflation. After learning about so much in the past few years, I see that a managed economy can never work as well as a truly free market one. But governments can't stop micro managing everything, but in the process, they fuck it all up. There are too many distortions now in the economy anyway for it to function as a true free market anyway, so the last ray of hope is to keep going down this road, even though its a dead end. I even saw a post about how Trump announced that he was on the side of the longshoremen and was going to prevent automation from taking over. He said he wants to ensure that US workers keep their good jobs. So if he is going down the road of stopping innovation, this never ends well, and just keeps prices high for consumers. I kind of fully expect a market crash once he is in office, and nothing he can do will prevent it. The system is too far gone to save. Whether the market pumps or crashes, there is going to be too much collateral damage for someone. It will honestly be good to just start over and the only hope is that he gets out of the way and lets it happen. The US can easily innovate and get back on track if the government just gets out of the way.