increase in money supply does NOT automatically lead to inflation. Increase in money supply + reduction in productivity can lead to inflation. If the money supply increases but rate of productivity also increases by the same magnitude as the increase in money supply, then there would be no or very little inflation.
Easy, I can give you an example of a product that increased 50% here recently. Olive oil. It lasted 2 weeks at a very high price, do you know what people started using? Sunflower oil. Markets had to reduce the price of that product because no one was buying it. Products have a price that people are willing to pay for them. Inflation might push them one way or another but that will not drive the market anywhere in the long run. Consumers will. So buying products in advance because you think they are going up is plain dumb, because if they go up and stay like that you will have to buy them again at that price. Or do you think that you bought never-ending products?
Assuming that illegal immigrants was the only source of labour and there is no cost to the illegal immigrants. Are you admitting that USA is treating illegal immigrants like slaves, not allowing them to go the hospital, school, daycare, drive on public roads, make them live in squalor, don't put out the fire of their houses should their houses catch fire while making them work non-stop? If no, then illegal immigration has cost of its own and is not cheap.
Seems to be the best time to buy McDonald and KFC shares, Almost all US made Beef Chicken Potato Corn syrup Wheat
So I'm the crackpot, eh? LOL Geezus, as far as I'm concerned, China is essentially over. What the hell does that mean? It means the days of cheap import is done. That further means there is no other alternative to China where we can import cheap olive oil. Even if we switch to sunflower oil, it will likely be more expensive than olive oil. Sure, we'll see more of "Made in India" or "Made in Vietnam" going forward, but they're in no position to beat "Made in China" as far as price is concerned. Not only that. For over 30 years, the US consumers have been fed these cheap imports. To them, shopping is like a friggin' drug addiction. Do you think they will be able to kick their habit overnight? Anyway, go buy that olive oil before it goes up even more.
It is simple to understand, what happens if we all go and buy a product? Producers see that there is demand and they increase the price. What happens if no one buys a product? Producers start decreasing the price because there is too much offer. You depend on the people around you to get a fair price. So if you want prices to decrease do not encourage people to buy more, do the opposite. So, yes you are the crackpot.
I'm not even sure we're on the same page. Here's my thought: 1) Massive tariffs will choke imports and that would put a dent on supply, which in turn will push prices higher (ie. "cost push" inflation). 2) Labor shortage is pretty much self-explanatory. Reduced capacity ultimately leads to financial strain and that will force companies and restaurants to raise prices. All in all, this will be a double-whammy on the economy.