I went to one of my favorite dive restaurants with a new date...the Spaghetto Trattoria on Bleeker. No one is acting like the S&P took its second biggest dive in 137 years. It was business as usual with people seemingly spending their money away and drinking wine at dive restaurants like the Spaghetto. If there is a recession in NYC, then I cant tell. You be the judge...
I live here, so I can tell you what the real deal is. There was a good chain called Burritoville that went out of business. Ruby Foo's in midtown is bust too. Starbuck's is still packed and people are ordering latte's, but the packedness is deceptive because the "consumption density" isn't the same everywhere. Some places are cutting back their hours, and I'm seeing that some places are playing games with their pricing and menu offerings on seamlessweb.com. As for rental markets, I think some of the free-rent deals are deceptive because the FiDi luxury complexes are simply trying to get off of the winter-leasing cycle. The rental deals are because fewer people search for housing in Dec/Jan. The real truth will be revealed in the summer. As for the job market? Well, I still get calls from recruiters. I'm still employed, but there's another layoff in the pipe where I work. However, this layoff is difference because my company, at the same time it is laying off people, is doing info sessions at the local Universities. Since I go to school at the same time as work, I see my company laying off people at work while going after college kids. So, in theory, I could get laid off and then go right to a job fair and get picked up again if I keep my mouth shut about where I've already been.
I just got back, a few minutes ago, from a Japanese restaurant. Every hibachi table was full to the gills. The other dining room where sushi and sashimi were served was about 3/4 full. I would say the average bill was about 80 bucks. No recession here..
Talk about deception. I was offered a 2 month rent concession to resign this year. got the lease, and it is written for 14 months!!!!
1) There is a sense of optimism because most people have already had a round of layoffs, they weren't on the chopping blocks so they breathe a sigh of relief. there is a up tick everywhere here in South Florida also. 2) Tax Money is coming, people are out spending a bit more. 3) Holidays are over with, and with the exception of Valentines, most people can have a little bit more discretion. Comparing the uptick with the Holiday month is bad anecdotal, because its not adjusting for the seasonality. However, the market is confirming somewhat your observations. Perhaps we are seeing a bottom.