Just for knowledge.....

Discussion in 'Trading' started by VictorS, Dec 14, 2002.

  1. VictorS


    I have a notebook that I keep each day's trading activity logged in. I use one section I call "Just For Knowledge." In that section I keep tidbits of info, stats, etc. I'll post some of the info here on occasion. Hopefully others will share a little also.

    Here we go again...???

    According to Yale Hirsch's Stock Trader's Almanac, since the end of World War II, "in post-election the Dow gained ground when Democrats retained the White House. The Republicans retook the White House thrice (not including the current administration) and the Dow lost ground each time."

    Democrats: Republicans:
    Truman +12.9% Eisenhower - 3.8%
    Johnson +10.9% Nixon -15.2%
    Clinton +22.7% Reagan - 9.2%

    Not good considering I largely supportive of republicans.
  2. fatman


    Would you mind telling me how you set up your notebook? I've been trading for 6 months and I too keep a notebook, but I have a feeling I could keep one that is more detailed.

    Thanks, Fatman
  3. Regardless of whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, it's quite risky to be long-term long over the next few years. What do you know... voters prefer ruining their retirement in exchange for what? another $300 tax break?
  4. VictorS


    Well, it is kind of hard to describe verbally. Basically, I keep track of S&P 500 prices (O,H,L,C), two moving averages, two rsi, Vix, p/c (H,L,C), nyse u/d volume, and index options. On the second page is the Dow its m.a., its rsi, QQQ, ndx, its 2 rsi, VXN, nas u/d volume.Each page contains about one month of information. I jot important notes above the prices or in the margins.(too many notes confuses me)
    I also have a binder which includes each day's intraday charts. I have several indicators I look at intraday and jot down notes.
    The two work together pretty well and provide me with good reference.
    This is what works for me.
    A little about my background: I do not usually daytrade, however, sometimes positions turn into daytrades. I trade index, QQQ, Dia options. Usually QQQ. Also, I do not use indicators the way most people use them. And in June I will move to the es emini futures.
    Personally, I think trading success is about EXPERIENCE, EXPERIENCE, EXPERIENCE not indicators nor secrets.
  5. Mir



    There's an important element missing from your analysis:

    Typically, the market gains in anticipation of a "good" thing happening, and sells off part of the way after that "good" thing comes to pass (aka, buy the rumor, sell the fact.)

    And vice versa in anticipation of "bad" things happening (sell the rumor, buy the fact.) You can confirm this fact many times every quarter with the earnings announcements. There are even people who have designed trading strategies to take advantage of this phenomenon.

    My suspicion is that, after more exhaustive, and more inclusive, deeper study, you will see that Republicans tend to pull the market higher overall, vis a vis the Democrats, because they are considered more pro-business.

    This study you are referring to focuses on the second part of each election. By that I mean the move that happens "after" the results were in, as opposed to taking a more holistic view of what happened in each case from the point that people were somewhat certain that a Republican or Democrat president was coming in.

    Make sense?
  6. prox


    Any stats on the rest of the presidents after WW2 ?
  7. I'm neither a republican or a democrat anymore -- I am a realist. However, I don't think you can say that, just because the economy is going down necessarily means that the party in power is responsible.

    Clinton could have easily enjoyed events that were set in place by Reagan and Bush Sr. It could also be argued that the reason we are in such poor shape economically is due to the fact that Clinton mismanaged our economy and the effects are now just beginning.

    Reagan outspent the Soviets and helped to bring an end to the cold-war. Republicans love to spend money, Democrats like to give it away -- what's the difference?
  8. VictorS


    I think you misunderstood the intention of my post. I am not at all blaming the Repubs. The economy was downturning while Clintyboy was still in office. I was merely pointing out a statistic. Whether it is coincidental or not could be argued forever. The fact is when they take initially take control of the White House the odds favor a declining Dow.

    I totally agree with you about buying into the "You're a democrat or you're a Republican" propaganda.
  9. could easily be a cycle of Republicans do things and it takes a few years to mature....than everyone feels differently and Democrats take over and do things differently......take a few years to mature......than everyone feels differently and Republicans take over

    you get the idea
  10. I would venture to say that the policies put into effect by one administration are carried over into the next.

    A new president does not get in and say I want to do this and it happens and the economy then immediatly reflects his policy. It take 18-24 months before big changes effect the little guy on the street.

    That being said the gov ought to step aside - simply maintain the infrastructure and maintain our security and get out of the way!!

    Make 'em pretty, Chris
    #10     Dec 15, 2002