i live the exact same hell - i have always come in too early. with my psych, i have problems knowing that I missed out on a move. My answer to that was to take a _small_ initial position when I like a trade, giving it time to develop. edit: for feedback, i think it's important to say something else: i do not use stops. I do not believe in them. I have seen ECNs spike-out my stops early-on when I started. After so many "anomolies", my opinion is that all stops do is provide liquidity to the market. f that. I wonder to exactly what DEGREEE i am krazy.....
personally ... i think you are going to be ok ... however.. you may be tested ... good luck to you ..i am watching the energy markets closely ..
Weak hands means you try and get out if it goes against, then keep trying. You are holding as if NG is going to spike limit up any day and you just cannot miss it. What have you been doing each month on rollover? Most people just can't stand -realizing- a loss (though it makes no difference whatsoever); however, if you're forced to sell to roll foward to next month, you are actively putting yourself in this hole each and every time. You must really have conviction! (note: with NG at steep contango, don't longs that keep rolling foward lose more than what's on the surface? If we stay at the same price for the next 4 months, you will still be losing the "premium" (forgive my ignorance of the proper term) on each rollover, no?)
You can also get quotes for Daily https://www.theice.com/marketdata/naNaturalGas/naIndex.jsp and prompt month gas https://www.theice.com/marketdata/naNaturalGas/monthIndex.jsp on ice. Occasionally, you can get a decent idea about how people with storage are looking to position themselves for the upcoming month by comparing the two... barring physical constraints of course. Not sure whether or not line pack status of individual pipes is publically available.
krazykarl, I trade in a very similar way and it works for me personally. I also hold 2 QG @ average price of 6.29. No sweat. 9-25 I will roll over and sit and wait. Do not let anyone scare you.
Are you the same guy who lost $5 billion in one week? Brian Hunter is that you? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=77141