just doubled-down on my NG position

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by krazykarl, Sep 22, 2006.

  1. nope - every short i've ever opened has gone bad - i do better long.

    i am by no means a permabull but i would rather use leverage to my advantage.
    #31     Sep 22, 2006
  2. I hope your right about your direction. I will average down in specific circumstances but always have an answer to the question - when will you know you're wrong?

    I got my copy of tradestation cheap from someone who averaged down into corn I think as it achieved lower and lower lows. When his account was used up he didn't think he needed Tradestation any more. As a now Sierra Chart user I think he was right to abandon TS :)
    #32     Sep 22, 2006
  3. Maverick74


    Nat Gas is going to 3.50. Write it down. Record high inventories and everyone is on the wrong side. Not a good position to be in. Also, Citadel and JP Morgan bought the book at a substantial discount, they have more then likely offset the entire book at a decent profit. They are more then likely flat now. You have no one on your side. Record lows in the Nov and Dec contracts right around the corner. Good luck.
    #33     Sep 22, 2006
  4. It never occurred to you to sell out your position to buy back lower? Or to just trade short-term against your position as support after support got blown out?

    Why the need to pretend to be a strong-hands player? Are you taking delivery and selling retail? Trade with weak-hands, and be proud of it.
    #34     Sep 22, 2006

  5. oh i make no pretense - i am trading weak hands, no question. this is just the style that works for me.
    #35     Sep 22, 2006
  6. Actually, hasn't PTJ been quoted as saying he likes to pick tops and bottoms?

    #36     Sep 22, 2006
  7. Karl, believe it or not I have been in your shoes. A few years back I took everything in my account I had made going long gold (from 302 to 370 ish) and shorted crude and continued to short crude from 24 to 31. This turned out realy ugly. I blew it up.

    I say this not to imply this will happen to you and please ET members no flames. Just think about it. Project ahead and see if you can stand that drawdown. I could financially, but I had to take 2 years off from trading. I was devastated. It was alot of money to me. Alot of pyschological capital as well. I just don't want to see that happen to you. That's all. I hope it works out for you. :)
    #37     Sep 22, 2006
  8. Some sage advice given to me I will pass on to you. When you find yourself in a hole and want to get out, the first thing to do is STOP DIGGING.
    #38     Sep 22, 2006
  9. dude ... with so much money at stake the least you should do is buy the "logical trader" book and try to read a few choice nuggets of wisdom there
    #39     Sep 22, 2006
  10. I hope it works out for you, kk.

    But I got a baaad feeling about it...

    Conviction like yours, with a big position, on a small account, with a new trader = t r o u b l e.

    And, really, even if it works out NEVER DO IT AGAIN.

    Buy a 5% of account position in a NG producer (with a dividend!) and hang on till it reaches a reasonable profit point. A trade like that, if given enough time, would have a VERY high success rate - above 90% I'd wager. And you could give it enough time with such a small position.

    Sounds better to me, than sweating bullets at every tick...

    Good luck! :cool:
    #40     Sep 22, 2006