%% Maybe right, especially when long time no new hi; posting an underperformer chart like gold, my not even mess it up 70%break out failure
Good Evening semperfrosty, It is all good buddy. I am not complaining about nothing. Full Disclaimer : I am currently a Losing Trader so far of about -$4,800 on the fiscal year of 2023. Let's see how the next 2 months go. My comments are not worth a penny with a hole in it because I am losing trader right now
I absolutely agree. The only downside (in my opinion) with markets like GC and CL is that they trade 23 hours a day and there is no real session like ES clearly has the US session and I don't want to be behind my desk for +10 hours a day. I use the same strategy but only trade ES, look at both the extended session prior day high and low but mainly at the US session prior day high and low, including the prior weekly highs and lows and only trade during the US session. 50 minutes into the session today we tested the high of Fridays US session, the overnight high and prior weeks high after breaking above it. I also look at NQ and RTY for confirmation, the more levels that are being tested the stronger the potential reaction, NQ was also testing both Fridays extended and US session high. Besides checking other indexes I also look at some internals and few other things, in my case TICK, ADD, VIX, breadth, RVOL and VWAP. Today was easy because everything aligned, VIX was going lower, ADD was going up, breadth was at 2 and those high levels happened to be around where VIX was, adding even more potential support. It was the perfect long setup at those levels that i mentioned earlier after breaking above them and retesting them. Which gives indexes another major advantage over other markets like CL and GC, market internals. You are right that a lot of traders are losing with this system but that's because they aren't patient enough. I only had 1 trade today, they want to be in and out of trades all day but that doesn't work with a system like this, or with most systems for that matter, patience is key. I prefer no trades or 1 trade with a perfect setup over 10 below par trades. It's waiting for that perfect setup that's the hardest part, FOMO and stuff like that.
Of course it has a session in which it will have the most volume, especially since that is the crossover time between the EU session and the US session so the time when most traders are active in the markets, but it definitely doesn't have a session as distinctive as the US session when the stock market is open, which makes the times in which ES will likely have the most significant volatility around those important levels much easier to predict.
I find CL, and GC, have same/similar trading opportunities as major market indices. Whatever. But as an example, earlier today I posted #18 here:- https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/daily-crude-chat.377060/page-2
I have seen dozens of threads like this over the years on ET; "simply do this and you will be profitable" and so on and so on. Some of these strategies are famous, like Dogs of the Dow, which was once all the rage, but now appears to pride itself on only just underperforming the DOW index https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dogsofthedow.asp . I have tried coding up a few of these, and never found one that works. Of course they look good in theory, with a few published charts and backtests showing good results, but cold hard market reality is a different beast. I have no idea whether this strategy works, it also looks rather woolly to implement, but even if the numbers work, you still need either an implemented algorithm to trade it automatically, or the right psychology to trade it discretionally, which are by no means easy things to achieve (read Trader Tom or Mark Douglas to get an idea). Disclaimer: I am a marginally profitable trader, trading very small sums in search of a consistent, reasonably profitable strategy. My pension fund is not at risk. Best of luck to everyone else on the same quest.