Really its not, do you actually know? But hey, I did put cinnamon on my eggs and fried toast instead of pepper this morning. Anyone can tell a middle aged spice eater who took mushrooms on Saturday night what e# is a measure of?
Ok, just because you don't like the theory, its a conspiracy theory. Lots of those lately, many of them turning out to be true, too. Please show data on the number of overall deaths in NYC over some worthwhile historical guideline to support your comment about the number of bodies piling up at a much higher rate than weekly "normal". I'm genuinely interested in it. I've been watching your posts since you've returned to the site. I remember you as a balanced and rational individual looking at both sides of the story critically. That was one of the factors so valuable about your contributions. But since your return it appears you are seriously driving a narrative and genuinely wanting this virus to be as bad as you are claiming. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope I am.
Keep in mind that this is from April 4th and the rate has only gone up by then... Deaths in New York City Are More Than Double the Usual Total https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html Over the 31 days ending April 4, more than twice the typical number of New Yorkers died. That total for the city includes deaths directly linked to the novel coronavirus as well as those from other causes, like heart attacks and cancer. Even this is only a partial count; we expect this number to rise as more deaths are counted. These numbers contradict the notion that many people who are dying from the new virus would have died shortly anyway. And they suggest that the current coronavirus death figures understate the real toll of the virus, either because of undercounting of coronavirus deaths, increases in deaths that are normally preventable, or both. ----------------- "But even if the current count is perfect, roughly 9,780 people have died of all causes over the past month in New York City, about 5,000 more than is typical. The numbers for the last two weeks of the period are even more stark: nearly 7,000 dead, more than three times as many deaths as would normally be expected this time of year." (More at above url)
Note some of the dynamic charts do not come through (Observed/Expected and above / below normal) Deaths in New York City Are More Than Double the Usual Total https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html Over the 31 days ending April 4, more than twice the typical number of New Yorkers died. That total for the city includes deaths directly linked to the novel coronavirus as well as those from other causes, like heart attacks and cancer. Even this is only a partial count; we expect this number to rise as more deaths are counted. These numbers contradict the notion that many people who are dying from the new virus would have died shortly anyway. And they suggest that the current coronavirus death figures understate the real toll of the virus, either because of undercounting of coronavirus deaths, increases in deaths that are normally preventable, or both. Deaths in New York City by month Observed Expected Notes: Counted deaths for the month ending April 4 include an additional 1,396 coronavirus deaths reported by the city that have not yet been added to the C.D.C. data.·Source: New York Times analysis of provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. Detailed data about deaths are hard to collect in real time, and the best available numbers, still incomplete, can lag by up to two weeks. That also means that they do not include the last few days, when the highest number of coronavirus deaths so far have been recorded in the city. Death from some causes, like car accidents, may be down at a time when many people are staying at home to prevent the spread of the virus. But any such reductions appear to be outweighed by increases in other causes of deaths. “The extent of damage from the virus may be greater than we anticipated, and the indirect effects of the virus may be greater than we anticipated,” said Harlan Krumholz, a cardiologist and professor at Yale Medical School, who is particularly concerned that patients with cardiac conditions are not seeking care because of the fear of being infected with coronavirus. “Meaning that the overall toll is much greater.” The overall rise in deaths suggests that the combination of crowded hospitals, an overtaxed ambulance system and a fearful population could have resulted in more deaths among people with heart attacks, strokes or other ailments who might have survived in normal circumstances. Deaths in New York City above or below normal Notes: Counted deaths for the month ending April 4 include an additional 1,396 coronavirus deaths reported by the city that have not yet been added to the C.D.C. data.·Source: New York Times analysis of provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. The measurements in our chart rely on a New York Times analysis of provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics, along with historical data from the C.D.C. and the city’s Department of Health. They capture the number of people who died within the city limits in each month since January 2000. The historical numbers include some small adjustments because of differences in how the two public health organizations measure deaths in the city. The recent numbers are most likely an undercount. Even in normal times, death certificates take time to be processed and collected, and complete death tallies can take weeks to become final. This is especially true for cases involving coronavirus. “Covid deaths all have to be manually coded,” said Bob Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch at the C.D.C.’s National Center for Health Statistics, adding that death counts from New York City typically lag actual deaths by 10 or 11 days. But even if the current count is perfect, roughly 9,780 people have died of all causes over the past month in New York City, about 5,000 more than is typical. The numbers for the last two weeks of the period are even more stark: nearly 7,000 dead, more than three times as many deaths as would normally be expected this time of year. As our charts show, deaths are strongly seasonal: On average, more people die in winter and fewer in summer. These fluctuations aren’t just related to the flu. In a typical year, the vast majority of the variation in mortality is driven by seasonal variation in the number of heart disease deaths. But the deaths over the last month dwarf what would be expected from seasonal variations, and look more like a mass casualty event. The city’s medical examiner’s office is holding bodies in refrigerated trailers outside of hospitals. City emergency medical technicians are declaring deaths in homes and on the streets instead of bringing people to hospitals. Robert A. Jensen, the chairman of Kenyon International, a firm that helps communities respond to major disasters and attacks, said the scale of the event would leave a lasting mark on the city. “The reminders will be cemeteries,” he said, describing European burial areas devoted to victims of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic. “There will be whole sections that have March, April and May 2020.” Methodology Our calculations rely on four slightly different measurements of deaths in New York City over the past two decades. Two C.D.C. data sets measure deaths in close to real time. One is the FluView system, which provides weekly all-cause mortality figures to help local officials evaluate flu seasons. The second is a new coronavirus dashboard of provisional death counts, which provides partly counted totals for all deaths that happened from Jan. 26 through the most recent Saturday. Both of these data sets measure all deaths that occur in the city. The city’s health department also measures deaths that occur in the city, and provided monthly data for 2010 through 2017. We supplemented these numbers with data from the C.D.C., which keeps statistics on deaths among all people whose homes are in the city, regardless of where the deaths occur. The resident and nonresident numbers differ by small but consistent ways over time, so we adjusted the C.D.C. figures to approximate the city health data. The exception was September 2001, when many more nonresidents died in New York City than in a typical September. To adjust for this, we added all nonresident World Trade Center deaths to the total from the C.D.C data. In general, provisional data on deaths understates the final totals because it takes time for local authorities to count and report all deaths to the C.D.C. This means that our recent total, as high as it is, is probably smaller than the real number. To partly account for this lag, we added the 1,396 coronavirus deaths that occurred through April 4 that have been reported by the city, but that have not yet been added to the C.D.C. data, to the total deaths counted figure.
Ecuador's official coronavirus death toll is 403, but new figures from one province suggest thousands have died. The government said 6,700 people died in Guayas province in the first two weeks of April, far more than the usual 1,000 deaths there in the same period. www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52324218 I asked someone down there and this is not a journalist error he believes and he has lived there over 10 years. Colombia they believe they undercount by up to 6x or more. E sharp? Anyone?
Thank you for posting. Unfortunately, its very difficult to determine the accuracy of this article for a number of reasons. First, it is the NYT and they have been less than accurate on a whole host of issues in the past, but excluding that, they claim their calculations are based on 1. Fluview. A good site. Provides data on the flu and pneumonia deaths, but nothing else. Note the spike on the chart isn't just because these deaths are up, but because all other deaths are down (because everyone is in lockdown). Its a percentage, only. So you need a denominator. This site's denominator (which is the estimated deaths in NYC) isn't at all what the times is reporting. Huh. 2. Coronavirus Dashboard. A site made by a high school kid in Washington state with data amalgamated with an unknown method of data collection from....I honestly don't know. Do you? Does anyone? I mean, its got a cool design, though. That's something. 3. NYC health department supposedly provided 7 years of deaths that occurred in the city. No idea where that is, why it isn't provided. 4. Which brings us to the CDC's "WONDER" search engine, which is a bit like using the Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment engine. I can't be sure if I've pulled anything correctly on it, but what I can be sure is that the engine doesn't have data past 2018. So, to sum up, we've got an article whose data isn't found anywhere else as it is reported, and the one source (the health department) data that could help explain some of the confusion seems to be omitted for some reason.
"Morgue's full. Portable refrigerator trailers are full. Hey Pete, you drive a pickup, don't you?" Hospital delivers bodies to Philly medical examiner in the open back of a pickup truck https://www.inquirer.com/health/cor...-examiner-ford-overflow-storage-20200420.html
Here is a new study. If this study is accurate, this study would once again demonstrate that the fatality rate is a fraction of the estimate by WHO. The fatality rate according to the numbers below would be between 0.136% and 0.271%. https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/ USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health on Monday released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread — and the fatality rate much lower — in L.A. County than previously thought. The results are from the first round of an ongoing study by USC researchers and county health officials. They will be conducting antibody testing over time on a series of representative samples of adults to determine the scope and spread of the pandemic across the county. Based on the results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has an antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for the statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has an antibody to the virus — which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have been infected. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county at the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.
This is interesting. I am not sure who is speaking on the video. But, they reference the results of the above study. The most surprising statement in the video is that one person states that they have already been vaccinated. I have no idea if the video is authentic. I am not in any way shape or from implying that it is authentic by posting it.