Jurik RSX, MESA Ehlers, Regression (linear, quadratic, logarithmic, exponential - all in one)

Trying to choose amongst the 3.

If someone had any experience with those, out of those 3 which one do you consider more significant?

Thanks

 

Linear regression is useful. It is also free. Others you mention are wortlhless in real trading.

 

Thanks,Jack!

Why are they useless?Can you please elaborate?Not b/c they are payable, i guess.

 

Because they generate losses not profits

 

Lets add the Hilbert Transform to the mix.

 

At least with Ehlers work, you can find the source code and modify according to your needs. Although with some searching, could probably find Juriks' code as well.

Just keep in mind, that if you believe price movement is best modeled by a random walk (lognormal distribution with skew and kurtosis), then technical analysis is charlatanism. Your job then becomes finding the regimes of price where it's not random.

 

Have you personally tried all the above mentioned techniques or is your statement based on general principles?

Not challenging you, just want to understand.

Thanks.

 

General principles. Although I do find Ehlers work interesting and sometimes useful.

Maintain your perspective about technical analysis as well as financial modeling. Both Ehlers and Jurik model market prices as signals with additive noise, and use digital signals processing (DSP) to analyze price movement. A quick word on models: all models are wrong, even the ones developed by Nobel prize winners in Economics.

To view prices as a signal plus noise is wrong, as is the random walk model. It's just a matter of the degree to which they are wrong.

 

Which out of four are modeled by a random walk?

 

Random walk is a model of how prices evolve through time. Random walk is analyzed by statistical based methods. The technical tools you mention are linear methods used to analyze other types of financial models, such as signal+noise.