June Gold...

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Realist, Mar 30, 2007.

  1. Realist


    its looking more likely that the catalyst for a gold move to over $700 in the coming days will be attributed to further USD weakness. uncle buck looks about ready to challange the early '05 lows. NFP report might give it the final shove overboard.
    #21     Apr 5, 2007
  2. Wonder if this thread should be called "May Silver?"

    This front load stuff with silver is tricky. If we go silly parabolic over the next two weeks, we might get that 'drop a dollar in one day' stuff that silver can do. Still, I prefer to buy the upcoming most active month on dips, rather than wait till the last minute and do the lemming stampede at an unnecessarily higher price.

    So perhaps the long awaited breakout is finally upon us, eh?

    Ah, to have the wind at one's back and the laptop under one's fingertrips.

    Long two silvers into weekend. If price begins to plummet Sun night one gets offed while I wait for springback. Sacrificied too many profits on altar of high silver price expectations.
    #22     Apr 5, 2007
  3. Realist


    there seems to be a similar sentiment among the gold related message boards to the action from last spring. Everyone seems to be waiting for a pullback to enter on the long side or to cover thier short. Few players are confident in this intermediate rise. In my view, there may not be many opportunities to jump aboard as upside momentum begins to pick up.
    #23     Apr 9, 2007
  4. Realist


    funny how things change in only a few hours...

    momentum continues to lag here @ 676. a bit disturbing action in gold is the selloff alongside Crude today. When Crude moved from 60 to 66 a while back, gold did not respond at all. Copper has also been showing very good RSI with Momentum lately while gold rises a bit and then sells off. Gold and Copper tend to move in tandem in high momentum moves. This time is not the case unfortunetely. Were just in a very tight range at the moment with the funds ping ponging the price around. I'm out tonight as it's looking like we will test 670 basis GCM in the coming hours/days. If I'm, wrong, the I'll renter on a move back over $680. SIK7 looks to back down to 13.40-50 again here soon imo.
    #24     Apr 9, 2007
  5. watching the action lately and IMO we are at the tipping point....

    does the fed lower and trash the dollar or raise to do inflation

    gold is saying the dollar dies and real estate dies with it.....

    it's getting really bizzare at this point.........

    long gold and short banks...is where I am
    #25     Apr 9, 2007
  6. Realist


    yep, still choppy action in the past few weeks. I only use the gold/silver contract when periods of high momentum are present. Right now, if GCM can close over 680 for the pit session then we finally open the door to further gains. It took about 3 weeks to get a $25 advance in the gold price so we need to see some price acceleration soon if we can expect to challange the old 730 high by FND. The one thing that still disturbs me on this move is the lack of a solid $20+ up day just as the uptrend began, Almost every single run is precluded by a decisive up move and we have yet to see this.

    In hindsight, I should be paying closer attention to copper since this is where much better price action has been seen the last month or so. It's likely the funds that are driving up the price so the downfall should be spectacular when it arrives.
    #26     Apr 10, 2007
  7. i love how gold speculation brings us all together! =)
    #27     Apr 10, 2007
  8. Realist


    USDX looks just terrible right now. I think any close under 82.30 opens the door to sub-80. This could happen as soon as the ECB meeting ends. XEU looks ready to break much higher. Not sure if the ECB tries to step in at 1.35 or not?

    The chart on the gold daily forex is looking a bit more interesting to me at the moment.A pattern of higher highs and higher lows is starting up again. the close over 680 basis GC is a better indication of things to come. Back in 1 GCM/SIK, added 1 PAM..
    #28     Apr 10, 2007
  9. we need a real move in gold... every day that passes going up a few bucks is an invitation for the big puke. need to send the commercials packing through 700$. i feel very unsettled.

    so tempting to take profit but at same time dont want to miss out on a big move that is going to happen eventually.
    #29     Apr 11, 2007
  10. Realist


    i'm with ya! I've got two accounts that i trade the metals in. One for scalp/swing and another for position trades. My scalp account has been outperforming the position based account since february by a huge margin. Case in point, without strong momentum in either direction, the better money is made with the shorter term trades. I really don't think we will see good momentum until the gold price finally breaks out over 730. For now as long as my buy signals are valid for the intermediate term, I'll continue to hold GC/SI positions, however shorter term scalp/swing opportunities continue to be very good lately by selling morning strength and buying afternoon weakness or vice versa...

    looking at the cash gold prices, I would speculate that we could see a drop in gold down to 665-670 soon. gold can only hit 680 resistance so many times before weak fund longs begin to bail which is understandable. many funds got long on the $9 up day last week as evident by the NYMEX volume that day. If GCM breaks 675, they are likely to bail and ask questions later. This type of liquidation would likely trigger sell stops down to 670 basis GCM imo..
    #30     Apr 11, 2007