Jun 2021 FOMC Meeting - Crystal Ball

Discussion in 'Fixed Income' started by kmiklas, Jun 14, 2021.

What will be the key outcomes of the FOMC meeting tomorrow?

  1. Tapering

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. No Tapering

    3 vote(s)
    50.0%
  3. Rate hike

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. No rate hike

    3 vote(s)
    50.0%
  5. Unemployment et alia figures don't justify changes

    3 vote(s)
    50.0%
  6. Stand by earlier statements: no changed until 2022 or 23

    3 vote(s)
    50.0%
  7. Reverse repos are a temporary fix to drain liquidity

    1 vote(s)
    16.7%
  8. A sizable serving of malarky, horse manure, and politics.

    3 vote(s)
    50.0%
  9. Inflation is not a concern

    2 vote(s)
    33.3%
  10. Inflation is becoming an issue

    1 vote(s)
    16.7%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. kmiklas

    kmiklas

    What will be the key outcome(s) of the Fed meeting?
     
  2. Arnie

    Arnie

    No way they hike rates. That won't happen until COVID is a memory. I think they re-state that inflation, while recently high, is not a concern longer term.
    These guys now have 3 mandates and inflation is the least of their concerns right now.
     
    DiceAreCast, kmiklas and longandshort like this.
  3. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    If bullish reaction I'm looking at bitcoin and meme plays MARA RIOT COIN, AMC etc. If bearish I'll buy inverses UVXY SQQQ
     
    kmiklas likes this.
  4. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    10 year rate moves a little lower .... then "Katy bar the door".

    Once again Fed will be beeeeeeeehind the curve.
     
  5. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    Fed will deny inflation by using supply chain temporary price increase excuse. That alone can be milked for a year.
     
  6. maxinger

    maxinger

    One thing is certain; The market will definitely move (in whatever manner/fashion/direction).

    Traders like Fed for creating trading opportunities.
     
    KCalhoun likes this.
  7. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    They will do what they do, but IMO unless they step up the sleight of hand paper/electronic money purchases of bonds/MBS's 10 year rate likely will head higher. And not just by a little.

    My EW wave count is at wave 4 of 5 of a higher degree wave c of a still higher degree, corrective to the main trend, Wave 2. Impulsive Wave 3, to come, is typically the biggie.
     
  8. Agree. I think if July and August CPi readings are through the roof then we will be in the shitter and fed must act. I believe the July and August CPI readings will be the most important and potentially impactful economic releases in the past 10 years unless they retreat to lower levels.

     
  9. Waves? Care to explain how consumer prices will be impacted by waves of the past? You are joking right?

     
  10. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    The only waves I follow re FOMC are the brief moves immediately following 2:30pm. Usually a 3-step move, eg kneejerk reaction, countertrend move, then final major run after 3pm
     
    #10     Jun 14, 2021
    SunTrader likes this.