yale hirsh's stock traders almanac shows that day as the one most likely to be a down day for the SP500 and Nasdaq. IT DOES NOT STATE HOW MUCH % wise a down day July 18 has been historically , just that it closes lower ...
I specifically remember this day +/- 1 day in 1998 as the day the SP500 topped...Interesting thing about this statistical study by Yale Hirsch is that, if I am not mistaken, often times the market is in either a macro uptrend or at least in a minor uptrend from around the end of May...In other words, many of these stats might be skewed by the tendencies of stock trends during the bull market... If price perversity has anything to say, perhaps that day serves as a major upside catalyst instead
Microsoft reports earnings on the 18th. Favorable guidance, and you're right. Negative guidance, perhaps a "flush" to the downside over several days for a good summer low? It's market on my calendar.