Realized Trades (started on 11/12/04): TRPH 0.86 0.9 5% GNTA 1.36 2.01 48% SCON 0.84 1.2 43% PHYX 1.02 1.02 0% CAU 1.21 1.08 -11% TRPH 0.94 1.11 18% HOFF 0.38 0.44 16% ANCCD 2.9 2.8 -3% CAU 1.08 1.15 6% BPUR 0.3 0.33 10% Positions now: ROFO 2.02 2.05 1% WTSLA 1.65 1.8 9% PRCS 1.66 1.66 0% VITX 0.53 0.61 15% I will post as time allows. The trades are based on a software based trading system, that combines great returns with great risks, that can be managed with the right kind of position sizing. Its a robust system, that needs no reoptimisation, because it bets on human behavior (panic selling) and it ranks the signal power of 5000 Stocks every day. The principle the system uses has been researched by behavioral finance academics with the conclusion that there should be some money in it. Historical Maximum Drawdowns up to 79%! Only Long, Portfolio up to 5 Stocks, 3 Days minimum holding. I am not looking at charts at all because they scare you out of the most profitable trades, I just try to follow the system. I bet 25% off my capital, so the drawdown gets reduced to a fraction (fractional investing). The system uses a trend following indicator on the Nasdaq100, when this is on a sell, all bets are off and it exits into cash. I worked very long days for years, so I will not publish the system code. Why I publish the results? Because I want to tell every trader who goes through hell right now: stop trading, go back to research, real time test the system, then follow the system. Need Ideas for system design? Look for practioneers principles and try to find out what the academics say about it. If both are on the same page, its worth considering. But only do it if you have a passion to trading that is so deep, that you would rather live of 1000 Euro a month trading then 100.000 Euro working another job only. (Korajczyk, R.O., Sadka, R. (2003), http://www.afajof.org/Pdf/forthcoming/Korajczyk_Sadka.pdf): "There is a growing literature on the predictability of stock returns based on the information contained in past returns. At very short horizons, such as a week or a month, returns are shown to have negative serial correlation (reversal), while at three to twelve month horizons, they exhibit positive serial correlation (momentum). During longer horizons, such as three to five years, stock returns again exhibit reversals." Andreas alias Judgejimmy
The link above does not work: here the right one ... Korajczyk, R.O., Sadka, R. (2003): Are Momentum Profits Robust to Trading Costs? in: http://www.afajof.org/Pdf/forthcoming/Korajczyk_Sadka.pdf
Trades done: TRPH 0.86 0.9 5% GNTA 1.36 2.01 48% SCON 0.84 1.2 43% PHYX 1.02 1.02 0% CAU 1.21 1.08 -11% TRPH 0.94 1.11 18% HOFF 0.38 0.44 16% ANCCD 2.9 2.8 -3% CAU 1.08 1.15 6% BPUR 0.3 0.33 10% PRCS 1.66 1.65 -1% ROFO 2.02 2.09 3% WTSLA 1.65 1.81 10% VITX 0.53 0.6 13% Active Trades ULTE 1.25 1.24 -1% HOFF 0.39 0.39 0% TSIC 0.36 0.38 6% GNTA 1.69 1.7 1%
Realized Trades TRPH 5086.9 4.65% GNTA 5063.28 47.79% SCON 4998 42.86% PHYX 5100 0.00% CAU 5000.93 -10.74% TRPH 5546 18.09% HOFF 2622 15.79% ANCCD 4988 -3.45% CAU 4463.64 6.48% BPUR 4860 10.00% PRCS 5146 -0.60% ROFO 5050 3.47% WTSLA 5029.2 9.70% VITX 5300 13.21% GNTA 4999.02 -1.18% HOFF 4875 26% TSIC 4968 -50% PARS 5000.04 25% Open Trades ULTEE 5500 8% OMNI 4992 -3%
Realised Trades: TRPH 4.65% GNTA 47.79% SCON 42.86% PHYX 0.00% CAU -10.74% TRPH 18.09% HOFF 15.79% ANCCD -3.45% CAU 6.48% BPUR 10.00% PRCS -0.60% ROFO 3.47% WTSLA 9.70% VITX 13.21% GNTA -1.18% HOFF 26% TSIC -50% PARS 25% OMNI -28% PRSFE -12% PARS -4% ULTEE 73% GLGSD 5.84% PHYX -3%
Jimmy, I don't want to start a flame war so take this in the right perspective...What good is a journal with no real time trades and random P+L percentages posted well after the fact?
No offense taken! There is no point of following in realtime, since you need to develop you own approach in order to be successfull in the markets. Belive me, the first post that describes the system can give you a living: - trade only long - use an overall market trend indicator - use mid term relative strenght, 52 Week high, 5 Year high, or extreme short term relative weakness - have a look at www.fasttrack.net, a very nice environment But as I said, it would not help anybody, if I would post them realtime, since you need to do you own research in order to be able to follow a system. The only point I want make: It is possible, if you have a burning desire to do it an put in some years of reasearch. The results are not random. I have traded every single one as posted. Best Regards Jimmy