Global Macro Notes: Open Ended Straight Draw In poker terms, central bankers have given the bulls an open-ended straight draw. They have "outs" to a win at both the high and low end of the straight... Read full notes here
Rising Transports, Falling Bonds, Vulnerable Aussie http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2012...ng-bonds-rising-transports-vulnerable-aussie/
Bullish Developments (forgot to post last night) http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2012/08/bullish-developments/
Silver, Solar, Citigroup Aug 21st - Market action continues to be constructive. Bulls have a firm grip and are not loosening it for now. Monday was largely quiet in respect to the major indices, but market internals are improving. AAPL surpassing the milestone of "most valuable company of all time" (in nominal terms) also surely added to positive sentiment. We spend less time looking at things like A/D lines and, through a combination of automated and human screening processes, digest the gestalt input of hundreds of charts each day (in addition to the few dozen bellwethers we track). The overall message continues to be, "bulls gaining traction." This does not speak to what may happen in September. But it speaks loudly to right now. Read full notes here
Serious Divergence (Dow, S&P, EURUSD) Aug 22 - Tuesday's trading saw a surprising divergence, as a powerful surge in the euro (EURUSD) telegraphed "risk on" and the message failed to hold. The major U.S. indices (Dow, S&P, Nasdaq) and bellwether Apple (AAPL) at first heeded the risk on message, trading higher overnight and showing significant strength in the early part of the trading day. At the day's high point the major indices were up solidly, the Dow and S&P penetrating multi-year highs. Then it all went south in a manner that should be considered mildly alarming to bulls... Read full notes here
Knee-Jerk Fed Reaction Doesnât Add Up The logic of expecting near-term stimulus, with U.S. econ data slowly getting better and Europe firming up, even as the market hovers near multi-year highs, with a politically sensitive election date looming, just doesn't make sense. Wednesday's response to the Fed minutes feels like an ill-thought, knee-jerk type reaction... Read full notes here
Aug 23, 2012 "Bullard and Evans chime in" Peter Boockvar writes: "After seeing the thoughts of FOMC members 3 weeks ago in the minutes released yesterday and comments from Rosengren, Fisher, Williams and Lockhart since, Evans and Bullard are now chiming in to the debate. Evans maintained his belief that more action is needed and he said specifically that âI donât need to see any more data to know that.â Bullard is more circumspect and doesnât think current economic and market conditions lend itself easily to full blown QE. So, if he does prefer more action, he doesnât seem likely to support something big right now and he also said the minutes are somewhat stale considering whatâs happened since. With the S&Pâs near multi yr highs, commodity prices just shy of their highest level since early April and some better than expected economic data points since the last FOMC meeting, its very possible that Bernanke will wait for the Aug payroll report before making a decision, thus making Jackson Hole a possible non event." http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/08/bullard-and-evans-chime-in/