AAPL to postpone iPhone 5 on undersupply of 28nm chips: http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20120726000117&cid=1206&MainCatID=12 If this is accurate then "buy on the dip b/c of iPhone 5" just got fragged. Good thing the market has Draghi juice.
In terms of political impacts, thinking longer term. It's not this election that could be a demagogue nightmare, but the one that follows. Agree that people are remarkably hardheaded and generally require the sledge hammer of crisis to change. Which is also what makes the longer term implications frightening - by the time we get the crisis blow, it's exceptionally severe. Again ruminating longer term here, as class warfare and demagogue politics are likely to be in a secular bull market for many years, uptrending already with a potential blowoff top somewhere in the late teens.
RE: The idiots nearing retirement with less than 30K savings: They probably have some type of pension and they will also be getting social security. A friend of mine retired from a defense contractor back in 1991, and recently his pension and social security were bringing in $2,800 per month, more than enough for his small apartment and expenses. He also had a huge amount of savings too, multiples more than the $30K that the grasshoppers have. BTW, do you have any info on how much Americans ~should~ have in savings at different stages in their lives? I'm 47 and have been wondering about it.
CNN retirement calculator: http://cgi.money.cnn.com/tools/retirementneed/retirementneed_plain.html I'm no CFP (certified financial planner), but I would say it depends on your liabilities (the people in life you are responsible for) and the style of living you have grown accustomed to. For example, I have a cousin who lives in San Francisco. She is in her sixties, has a great place on Marina Blvd, and makes a decent living as a photography consultant. Most of her income goes towards maintaining her SF bohemian lifestyle (which is not expensive but not cheap either). She has little savings, but few responsibilities, no immediate or extended family to support, and will likely never retire as she loves her work and would be bored without it. She also has friends and relatives who would help if disaster ever struck -- so her savings needs are small. On the other hand, I have another friend in his early thirties who is on his way to making partner at a prominent law firm. I would guesstimate he makes 250K a year and is on track to make a lot more (at the cost of having no life). But he is basically responsible not just for the well being of his own wife and child, but for extended family (parents, grandparents etc) on both sides, in keeping with cultural customs and his duties as the good immigrant son whose family sacrificed to get him an Ivy League education. On top of that, his beautiful wife places a very high value on 'having nice things' and the status that material possessions bring... so he'll have to save ridiculous amounts.
Aha, that's easy to overlook - I have no immediate or exteneded family members to drain my bank account in later years. When you read a story about adult children moving back into their parent's home, you have to wonder how much of an unexpected expense it is for the parents. And how embarrasing it must be to be a 20 something sleeping in the same bedroom he had chickenpox in.....
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/v4boTbv9_nU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Seriously Microsoft what the fuck... This makes me want to buy long-term puts on MSFT. (Not that we actually will... stock is too cheap... but tempted. Good grief.)
I call bullshit on this rally. Expectations that Europe is finally going to "do something" = seriously weak sauce. Germany isn't bought in. Finland isn't bought in. ECB buying of Spanish and Italian bonds isn't going to change anything. I'm not even sure the Europe-based-buyers believe anything in Europe will change. It's just silliness. And of course the macro picture for the U.S. econ and U.S. corporate earnings hasn't changed. Top line revenue deterioration is front and center. High flyer cult stocks are being taken out and shot, ZNGA and FB the latest bodies to hit the floor. And the technicals are bad. Small caps are weak. Trannies are weak. Tech is weak. The mighty Apple whiffed and might be forced to delay the iPhone 5. Treasury bond yields are hitting record lows. Gonna press some shorts today if the action confirms.
This is some crazy shit, re, historical persistence of post-panic lows in government bond yields. Via http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox/hoisington-quarterly-review-and-outlook2