JPY at end of trend?

they wont do anything until after the summit this weekend, though.

 

The SSI analysis is bearish USD/JPY so Bearish USD / Bullish JPY.

Here's the monthly chart of USD/JPY you mentioned in your last post connecting the high of Aug '08 with high of Apr '09. (I hope it looks like what you intended from your description )




@ASusilovic Strategy Trader is a new automated trading platform we recently released and the charting on it is the most advanced we offer for free. We have a thread setup in the automated trading section for Strategy Trader so the USD/JPY discussion doesn't get hijacked http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=201630

 

TY! Re analysis I was referring to this

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundam...1116-US_Dollar__Trading_America_s_Record.html

 

And here is another wedge a more radical one. Same monthly chart. Momnetum indicators are screaming Long.

 

Dollar to Halt Drop at 81 Yen, Rally to 84: Technical Analysis

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may stop declining at about 81 yen before it rebounds toward 84 yen, according to Citigroup Inc., citing trading patterns.
The dollar’s target is 81.29 yen, according to the Ichimoku chart’s “V pattern,” which is based on the idea that a currency will decline by twice the amount of the preceding gain, said Osamu Takashima, chief currency strategist at Citigroup in Tokyo. After the dollar rose to 94.99 yen on May 4 from 88.14 yen on March 4, the currency may fall from the high by double the size of the advance to 81.29 yen, Takashima said.

Source Bloomberg
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Just another possibility, although I don't think there are any hard stats to back that opinion. High 79s area is the ultimate magnet. I've been mostly mentioning contrarian bullish scenarios, but there is one major bearish scenario there for Ninja & that is 3 lower peaks on Monthly chart. Now if one was to check validity of that pattern will be probably amazed at how many times that pattern leads to a flush. If all time low weren't so close vs upper magnets I would have paid a lot more attention to those 3 buggers in Ninja. But IMO proximity of all time low will act as an ultimate stop point for any potential flush. Technically speaking this is becoming less interesting for Nonja bears , fundamental opinions vary a lot from what I have read do far.

 

If my interpretation is right, we should see much more USD/JPY losses and much more GBP/JPY losses...

 

"We are beginning to see divergence between the SSI and price, where price has set a fresh low while SSI has not hit new extremes. This suggests an important correction may be near." Same source

 

Also, an overwhelming ratio of analysts suggest Yen is undervalued & to me that ratio suggests that trend is running out of steam. Where were these analysis when Ninja was @ 120 zone. Perhaps I am mistaken as I wasn't paying attention at the time, but normally these analysts unite in opinions whenever trend is near exhaustion. I recall similar scenario in crude when 18 out of 20 analysts (Bloomberg survey) said oil to pullback & only 2 said upside, I looked at the chart & it suggested upside. Minority won the case as oil marched from 80s to 130 or whatever it was at the high. So I would have thought that if it is getting overcrowded it is on the short side as trend is bearish on most time frames.

 

Those who counting on BOJ intervention again soon may be disappointed.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kathy Lien:

JPY: WHY BOJ IS NOT IN THE MARKET


The Japanese Yen strengthened against all of the major currencies with no sign of the Bank of Japan in the market. As mentioned in the dollar portion of this report, the reason why the BoJ could be holding back is because the Japanese government may not want to be lumped into the same basket as China and be criticized for intervening in the currency. Comments out of the Japan also suggest that they are not considering additional intervention at this time. Japanese Prime Minister Kan said last night that he wants to cooperate with G7 on currencies appropriately and he expects the BoJ to use monetary policy to support the economy. The country’s trade minister also indicated that the BoJ has done all that it can which are certainly not powerful words. The current account and trade balance reports are due for release this evening and it will be interesting to see how much damage the strong Yen has had on import and export activities. Economists expect Japan’s surplus to shrink from Y916B to Y254B. Leading and coincident indicators were released last night and the data showed a mild deterioration in leading indicators followed by a mild improvement in coincident indicators.
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"However, Mr Noda warned that the Tokyo government was watching the market with great interest and that it would take “decisive action, including intervention, if necessary.”

The trade balance declined 35.2 per cent in August from a year earlier to Y195.9bn, its first drop in more than a year.

Export growth slowed to a 16.5 per cent rise from a year ago, down from July’s 24.7 per cent gain."

Source FT.com
October 8 2010 05:34

Also there is this:


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Investors sharply increased their bets in favor of the yen--by 72%--according to data released Friday.

Net speculative bets, called longs, in favor of the yen increased to 49,206 contracts in the week ended Tuesday, compared to last week's data that showed 28,666 pro-yen contracts, according to a Scotia Bank analysis of the weekly Commitments of Traders report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission late Friday afternoon.

All currencies now have net long positions against the U.S. dollar, said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto, with a value of bets against the dollar at $35.3 billion. That puts anti-dollar bets at their highest level since December 2009, when dollar shorts totaled $26 billion, Sutton said.

Net bets in favor of the euro also increased, according to the Scotia analysis of the latest data, with the number of pro-euro contracts increasing to 48,243 compared to last week's data showing 35,330 contracts.

The dollar has weakened broadly against its major rivals in recent weeks, with the ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, sinking Thursday to its lowest level since January. It hovered at that level Friday.

As bets in favor of the yen have increased, the dollar has dropped to a series of 15-year lows against the Japanese currency. Although the CFTC data does not include Friday's price action, the dollar on Friday dropped to Y81.72. Late Friday, it traded at Y82.06 from Y82.40 late Thursday, according to EBS via CQG.

The strengthening yen has put investors on high alert for signs of Japan intervening in currency markets to stem yen strength. Analysts said they saw no signs Friday of Japan's hand in currency markets.

Investors betting in favor of the yen show that "they are not fearing intervention, nor the [Bank of Japan] monetary" easing, which was implemented this week in a so-far unsuccessful effort to drive down the yen, Sutton said.

The data represent only a small slice of the foreign-exchange market and reflect positions taken by the most active speculative investors. The report does, however, give a sense of market sentiment toward the euro based on the direction and volume of bets.



-By Bradley Davis, Dow Jones Newswires