JPY at end of trend?

Commercials - bullish 32% down 3%
Large Specs - bullish 79% up 2%
Small Specs - bullish 53% up 3%

Open interest hardly changed.

 

USD Index: Large Specs have increased Long positions at ~x2 Short increase. Commercials didn't increase Short positions, but reduced Long positions.

 

USD Index

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3003561>

 

Message from Toyota to the Japanese government: “Do something, or we leave."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23b466de-e8af-11df-a383-00144feab49a.html

Now before the contingent that hasn’t passed currencies 101 yells “currency manipulation,” here a short primer. There is “currency manipulation,” there is “quantitative easing,” and there is “central bank intervention.” Just like with terrorists and freedom fighters, it depends on which side you are on. Maybe the Japanese should ask Bernanke on how to weaken a currency. He’s quite good at it at the moment. Recently, the stronger yen was a function of the weaker dollar.



http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/20...overnment-if-the-yen-gets-any-stronger-we-go/

 

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

Absolutely no change of NON Commercial positioning. USD slaughter to be continued. You deserve it, US of A !

 

IMO providing QE2 is not bumped up I say UJ to 88-90 within 6 months. AS are you taking the other side UJ to 72 within next 6 months?

"...The consensus views for dollar/yen, derived from 60 strategists...Dollar/yen is expected to end November at 80.9, almost exactly where it was trading on Wednesday, rising to 82 in three months, 85 in six and 88 in 12 months..."

http://www.brecorder.com/news/money...en-but-more-fed-qe-will-slow-its-decline.html

 

How shall I know what will happening in 6 month ?

Ask me what will happen in the next 8 hours and I may take an informed "guess"...;=)

 

Implied Volatility (1wk) on USD-based Majors: EUR (13.40%); GBP (10.52); JPY (9.70); CHF (12.30); CAD (9.80); AUD (13.43); NZD (13.52).

I adore vola...

 

A chart is a chart. DAX did go to 4000 didn't it?

 

So what. Are you seriously going to base your decisions on the USD based on the COT report? Maybe for some commodities, but for USD? Look at the graph and tell me how it has any indicative value of where the currency is headed.