Well, good luck. It seems to be the only currency that hasn't reacted that much to QE2...double repo on daily now too...BOJ will not let it drop much past 79.75...& what about GBPJPY? Retail traders win or what?
Well, I am long GBP/JPY - as usually retail traders are on the wrong side again ( short ). And I am short USD/JPY. Long NZD/USD. ;=)
* BOJ meets for 2nd day debate, decision likely 0330-0500 GMT From DailyFX: Sometime today, likely in the next several hours, the Bank of Japan will announce its latest policy decision. This particular meeting was actually scheduled for November 16th, but at the last meeting on October 28th, the central bank moved the date of this meeting forward. The BOJâs explicit reason for the move was âto discuss the principal terms and conditions for the purchases of exchange traded funds and Japanese real estate investment trusts with a view to promptly starting their purchases.â In other words, the central bank wants to get its $5 trillion Yen quantitative easing program started as soon as possible. But many in the markets felt that the timing of the move was suspicious. After all, it is coming only days after the highly-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting which the BOJ knew would feature a significant new QE program from the U.S. central bank. Many in the market thus believe that the BOJ moved up its meeting so it would have the flexibility to react quickly to the Fedâs decision were it to create substantial movements in currency markets. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa has outright denied this, âwe didnât take them into consideration,â he has said in reference to the Fed meeting. But regardless of what any BOJ officials say explicitly, moving up the meeting has given them the opportunity to react. So, can we expect that they will take additional action on top of the $5 trillion Yen program that was already announced? Itâs hard to say. While the Bank of Japan is constantly trying to come up with creative ways to support an economy mired by crippling deflation, the fact that the central bank just initiated a significant new program at the last meeting means that further action is less likely than would usually be the case. Moreover, the Federal Reserveâs program of $600 billion in Treasury purchases has not had the affect of sending the Yen to new highs. In fact, USD/JPY has held recent lows near 80, while crosses such as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY have actually rallied notably in the last couple of days. That being said, any trader with positions in Yen pairs must always be on the lookout for potential action from the BOJ. If the central bank responds to the Fedâs QE program with an increase in its own QE program, the Japanese currency would likely sink dramatically as the move would be seen as an aggressive defense against further Yen appreciation. If the BOJ instead takes no action at this policy meeting, traders will have to watch to see whether USD/JPY can hold recent lows near 80, just above the all-time lows of 79.75. If it can, there is a good chance the pair may finally be bottoming out. Otherwise, a break would simply be seen as a resumption of the downtrend that has plagued this pair for months now. Traders may wish to focus on Yen crosses such as AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY, for they have the potential to advance regardless of what comes out of the BOJ today.
RPT-BOJ holds off on easing policy as yen stable post-Fed TOKYO Nov 5 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan on Friday kept interest rates at zero and held off on easing monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve's bond buying plan did not trigger yen gains sharp enough to warrant an immediate policy response. The central bank also said it would buy exchange-traded funds (ETF) linked to the Topix .TOPX and the Nikkei 225 .N225 stock average, and buy real estate trust funds (REITs) rated AA or higher. The BOJ said it would begin buying government bonds under its new 5 trillion yen ($62 billion) asset-buying scheme at the beginning of next week. That will be followed by purchases of other assets, it added. As widely expected, the BOJ kept interest rates unchanged at a range of zero to 0.1 percent by a unanimous vote. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will hold a news conference, with his embargoed comments to come out sometime after 4:15 p.m. (0715 GMT). The BOJ last month surprised markets by pegging rates virtually at zero and pledging to pump more money into the economy with a 5-trillion-yen asset buying scheme that targets government bonds and corporate debt. It pushed forward its November rate review to this week from later this month to speed up the launch of the asset buying scheme, and said it would announce details of its buying of ETFs and REITs. The rescheduled BOJ meeting came a day after the Federal Reserve decided on a controversial new policy of committing to buy government bonds to help an anaemic U.S. economy. Markets had expected the BOJ to hold off on easing policy further unless the Fed's move triggered a sharp spike in the yen accompanied by steep declines in Tokyo share prices. Still, Shirakawa has said the BOJ is ready to pump more money into the economy by expanding the size of its asset buying fund if economic conditions deteriorate. ($1=80.72 Yen) (Reporting by Leika Kihara, Rie Ishiguro; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
That basically means 80 is protected by BOJ, for the time being. If price starts testing 80, then BOJ will probably flood the market with paper. That suggests that monthly 20 SMA is still likely unless the FED comes out with further easing within the next 6 months.
Book perfect divergence in Yen monthly chart. It doesn't get more perfect than that & the current top of this quad divergence is pips away from the all time high. BOJ keeps sending messages of not letting the Yen advance beyond the all time high. I mean... Jeez Louise Peppa Cheese!!!! What more do you need? <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3002367>
Toyota has said their H2 yen outlook is 82 to 1USD, they will raise car prices to offset yen strength.
UJ held support well after BOJ's announcement today of no additional easing in response to FED's QE2 as Yen failed to break through resistance (ATH). It doesn't look like a great bottom in Ninja, so I think it will start with a gradual closure of Yen longs, which now has a pennant on Daily frame. That gradual unwinding I hope will accelerate as Yen starts to decline sooner rather than later. COT chart out later today.