JPY at end of trend?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by JSSPMK, Sep 8, 2010.

  1. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    AS, Dollar is not collapsing yet, it's just a flush. I can display graphically how non commercial traders lost in the past, they are not holy Grail. All time low will create a nice multi month bounce ;)
     
    #181     Oct 25, 2010
  2. [​IMG]

    More of the same...GBPJPY retail traders adding to losing positions as are USDJPY retail traders...Stay short GBPJPY and USDJPY.
     
    #182     Oct 25, 2010
  3. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    Down trend (UJ) is exhausted, a reaction is brewing. AS keeps posting FXCM's trade book graphs and I do see what he is implying - trend reversal when retail traders abandon longs, but let's not forget what happens to price action near MAJOR zones. Support zones are bought and resistance zones are sold. Why is that on a wall of shame all of the sudden. It's much more prudent to do that rather than sell near a major support zone due to reduction in ratios between reward & risk.

    In the end whatever is meant to happen will happen. I am holding Ninja long, not averaging down just to P off AS ;)
     
    #183     Oct 25, 2010
  4. Crowd behavior leads to crashes one way or the other....
     
    #184     Oct 25, 2010
  5. blnbr

    blnbr

    U/J continues to move near the historical low 79.80 area. That could be a double-bottom support there. However, I won’t be surprised that the price breaks below 79.80 level and touch the chart channel support at 79.00~79.30 before bounce back up.
    watching…:cool: :confused: :cool:
     
    #185     Oct 25, 2010
  6. [​IMG]

    Stay short USD/JPY , GBP/JPY....
     
    #186     Oct 25, 2010
  7. Jason Rogers

    Jason Rogers ET Sponsor

    Watch out for tonight's UK GDP numbers. Possible catalyst sending GBP/JPY lower if it comes in lower than expected.
     
    #187     Oct 25, 2010
  8. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    Huge declining wedge in Ninja daily getting to apex of wedge, very close to all time low, Japan government under pressure to do SOMETHING to hold down Yen, DX weekly put in inside bar at rising multi month TL, open interest dropped slightly last week, savvy traders don't initiate new shorts too close to all time low due to low reward vs risk. I am sure there are more reasons for going long the cross the closer it gets to the all time low.

    Ok, I will not pretend to understand fully reasons to call for end of the down trend, but there are enough reasons to expect an intermediate bottom to come in near 80 zone. Common sense guys, QE2 was hinted at and reaction of pricing in hasn't broken all time low already, why would it do it now? Based on what?

    Let's be realistic ;)
     
    #188     Oct 25, 2010
  9. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    Oops!
     
    #189     Oct 26, 2010
  10. Trailing stop hit. Doesn´t matter. In the last 14 days + 635 pips profit. -87 pips stops hit. Net = + 548. Thanks to FXCM´s SSI indicator. Not a bad strategy based on pure "sentiment".

    Let´s see how it works in the future. :cool:
     
    #190     Oct 26, 2010