Nah, below 500 is not funny ;=) And yes, no change in positioning of retail traders : Oanda : 65,39 % long GBP/JPY, 81,73 % long USD/JPY FXCM : 90 % long GBP/JPY, 88 % long USD/JPY Dukascopy : 62.8 % long GBP/JPY, 72.61 % long USD/JPY
I really rate this man's analysis, he is Nadeem Walayat. "Japanese Yen Ouch! â If there is a currency war taking place then Japan is definitely losing the war! The Japanese Yen comprises approx 14% of the USD Index, so roughly ranks along side the British Pound in terms of trend impact. The Yen has clearly been in a strong uptrend against the Dollar that is nudging towards the upper end of a multi-year channel that suggests upside is limited to not far above the current level of 122, perhaps just 123. This suggests that the Yen should start a correction in the near future towards first 116, and then secondly 110, which represents a 5% / 10% correction against the dollar. <img src=http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2010/Oct/dollar-yen-10.gif> Implications for the USD A 5% â 10% correction against the dollar, translates into a USD move to 81 and then 85. Which therefore is supportive of the dollar at least in terms of dollar yen, as I donât see it happening in terms of the USD index. However an imminent Yen correction implies that the dollar could experience a lift in the near future towards 80 before year end, beyond that it is not clear as the Yen could base at 116 before setting itself up for a new all time high against the dollar i.e break above 123 i.e. suggesting dollar strength into End 2010 and then weakness into mid 2011, which roughly matches Euro expectations, though out of sync with GBP.
Here is a great article by Nadeem, some would call it an 'eye opener'. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22199.html
CME JPY longs absolutely unwilling to unwind long positions: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm