AS, IMO non-commercials will win this time. Japan hinted not long ago that it doesn't want speculators driving Yen higher, there is a slap on the wrist brewing.
Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Japanâs success in building an economy that supplies the world with everything from cars to electronics is now undermining its own efforts to keep the yen from rising at a time when few countries want a strong currency. The yen has gained 84 percent against a basket of the most- traded currencies since the start of 1986, including a 12 percent gain in 2010, as the nation posted a surplus every year in its current account, the broadest measure of trade. Unlike the U.S. or the 16-nation euro region, Japan doesnât rely on foreign capital to finance its budget deficit. As a result, money is flowing into Japan from traders concerned about indebted nationsâ funding as growth in the global economy slows. Bets the currency will strengthen were about the highest this year, even after Japan</a> sold 2 trillion yen ($24.6 billion) last month in its first intervention since 2004. The central bank and Ministry of Finance say Japan needs a weaker currency to bolster exports. http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGwM_dlY26v0&pos=5
GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 14.09 as nearly 93% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 6.87 as 87% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 73.6% higher than yesterday and 48.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 15.4% lower than yesterday and 9.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 62.3% stronger than yesterday and 235.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses. Ay, ay, ay...looking for short entries in GBP/JPY...
JSSPMK, that´s the sort of news I was waiting for : http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20101019D19JF355.htm A Cabinet Office official briefing reporters said the negative revision was mostly due to slowdown in the Chinese economy, which damaged business activity in other Asian nations and in turn reduced their demand for Japan-made products. "Shipments have been weakening recently, and the latest data clearly showed industrial output has worsened," the official said. The report also lowered its assessment for exports for the second straight month as well as for industrial output, which was revised downward in August. Both are "weakening," the document said. ;=) Position yourself "strategically"...
It seems retail traders are doubling/averaging into their GBP/JPY positions....this will end badly....stay short
Ninja all time low is within 100+ pips on the other hand multi year support of 100 is like almost 2000 pips away. Which carries a better risk/reward? It is no big surprise to see high 79s re-tested but let's face it what percentage of non-commercials will be adding to shorts at or very near to the all time low? IMO not many. P.S. Wow Ruble non-commercials 6+k Long and 16 short, should be flying, yet it ain't.