JPY at end of trend?

Dollar fall sparks warnings

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5505a7f0-d7c2-11df-b478-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

 

"Japan will take resolute action if needed"

Christ how many times will they be saying the same old thing? Say something sensible Mr Kan't

 

BOJ GOV. SHIRAKAWA: Pace of Japan's economic recovery is slowing, important to pay attention to downside risks to economy.

SHIRAKAWA: Overseas economy and yen strength are behind slower recovery; BoJ to strive to pursue powerful monetary easing.

I am buying JPY CME strangles....

 

Yen Gains May Be Coming to an End, Ex-MOF Utsumi Says

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The yen’s gains against the dollar may be “coming to an end” as investors have already priced in another round of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, a former top Japanese currency official said.


“The market has mostly factored in possible actions by the Fed” at its next policy board meeting in November, said Makoto Utsumi, 76, who led Japan’s currency policy from 1989 to 1991 as vice finance minister for international affairs. Even if the Fed eases monetary policy further, “there will be no need to worry much about currencies being affected more from it,” he said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday."


"“There’s no fundamental reason for the yen to strengthen,” said Utsumi, who conducted Japan’s currency intervention after the signing of the Plaza Accord in 1985. “The more the yen strengthens, the bigger the reversal could be.”

 

Yen’s Large Gains in 80s Lesson for China to Learn, Yao Says
October 14, 2010, 11:26 PM EDT

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Large gains in the value of Japan’s yen in the 1980s caused exports to plunge, unemployement to rise and an economic slump and is a lesson to learn from, Yao Jian, spokesman for China’s Ministry of Commerce, said at a briefing in Beijing today.

So “how can Japan lecture China given the lesson they learned from their own history,” Yao said.

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Discuss.

 

BOC currency reserves $2500 bn. BOJ currency reserves $1100 bn.

I think I know who the 800lb gorilla is in this game...

 

If anyone cares to look at a quarterly chart they will see the following:

1998-----2002-----2007


3 lowered peaks, that has been a major macro pattern in Ninja signalling weakness of the pair for years to come. But all time low is all time low & it is quite simply not likely to expect that zone to just collapse straight away. So the likelihood of a proper bounce is very likely as far as I am concerned, question is where to?

I see 100. Because on the above chart it has been a long term support zone, which now has to act as resistance. Also that's where upper Bollinger band happens to be on Monthly chart. A possible overshot is 200 SMA monthly which is currently 107ish will still register a 4th lower peak in line with a broad down trend in the pair. 100 zone is also 38.2% from 1998 Hi to All time low.

 

Expect major/brutal wash out day in USD/JPY....

 

Washout as in Yen getting stronger -- or longs getting trapped?

 

C'mon DB!