JPMorgan predicts $380 oil on worst-case Russian output cuts

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ipatent, Jul 2, 2022.

  1. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    For currencies, you may well be right. For oil, no. The green fairy dust alternatives are many decades (if ever) from being able to replace fossil fuels. But I think you're talking about the $USD. Yes, currencies have been replaced very quickly in the past (long before the digital age) and will be again.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2022
    #21     Jul 3, 2022
  2. ET180

    ET180

    Maybe, maybe not. Average voter has memory that lasts about 2 weeks.
     
    #22     Jul 3, 2022
  3. easymon1

    easymon1

    They'll remember this one.
    They'll remember the entire 2020 election process and result.
    "You can't trust poopy joe, but you can trust poopy joe to be poopy joe."
     
    #23     Jul 3, 2022
    MKTrader likes this.
  4. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    And it's much worse with so many people glued to so-called "news" on their phones and general ADHD in our information/propaganda age. "J6 witch hunt!... Roe v. Wade will set us back 300 years! (even though it always should've been handled at the state level)... Russia-Ukraine!... Trump's a racist because, well, reasons!"

    They forget how much they paid for gas and how good things used to be until after they voted.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2022
    #24     Jul 3, 2022
  5. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Of course we have to declare war on domestic oil (then beg the Saudis for better prices), because climate change, or something. Even though it doesn't make a dent in carbon emissions when developing countries (and communist countries that never abide by international regulatory treaties) are producing and using energy. I'm not concerned about carbon emissions anyway, but even if I were...
    Greta.jpg
     
    #25     Jul 3, 2022
    NoahA, Clubber Lang and easymon1 like this.
  6. easymon1

    easymon1

    Last edited: Jul 3, 2022
    #26     Jul 3, 2022
    Ayn Rand and MKTrader like this.
  7. TheDawn

    TheDawn

    Russia is only the third largest oil producer in the world. I do not believe that if they restrict supply, we are all going to be out of oil especially with US opening oil reserves right now. https://www.worldometers.info/oil/oil-production-by-country/ JP Morgan is out to lunch a bit on this one. Or perhaps it's long on oil?
     
    #27     Jul 3, 2022
  8. TheDawn

    TheDawn

    Good to see US's carbon emission is now reduced. It should, after it outsourced the majority of the manufacturing to China and now India and very soon we should see a rise in carbon emission in Vietnam too.
     
    #28     Jul 3, 2022
    Ayn Rand likes this.
  9. If shortages are in play... The Euro might hyperinflate depending on severity and length of the shortage... That would be big.
     
    #29     Jul 3, 2022
  10. The best proxy for this is percentage of foreign reserves. Here are the IMF reserves. They stopped publishing country reserves publicly (I wonder why...). IMF is an arm of the US so it isn't a perfect proxy, the real data is foreign country reserves. I'd be very surprised if they look drastically different from below in aggregate.

    upload_2022-7-3_9-50-37.png

    For completeness, here are the out-of-date foreign country reserves:

    upload_2022-7-3_9-53-23.png
     
    #30     Jul 3, 2022
    NoahA likes this.