Well, the only downside to being long vol is the cost of buying the options. Reduce that cost to the maximum extent and you then maybe have an edge from profiting from big moves.
Yes that's absolutely correct. I was only asked about 2008 and 2009, not any other years. We're only half way through 2009.. My system has performed staggeringly well over the last 30 years in backtesting. The point at which I started using it for real is pretty much irrelevant. It was 2006 if you want to know.
Yes, it's impossible to get an edge buy buying options - Mr Taleb's fund demonstrated that very well. Don't buy options, instead simulate owning them by trading the underlying. That's what trendfollowing is, roughly speaking.
The summed up costs of all the stopped out trades in a trend following system is conceptually equivalent to option premium cost.
i dont see any conceptual equivalent whatsoever. The risks are not identical, the exposure is not, the premia are not, nor are 99% of the times implied and realizeds matching. Not sure what you are talking about.
If you are an options trader per se, i.e. hedge delta and take vega positions only, then yes, it's difficult to understand what I'm saying. Suppose you just buy calls to bet on the market going up, puts to bet on it going down and straddles to bet on it going either way - which is what everyone did before Messrs Black & Scholes wrought their mischief - then it's actually very intuitive to see how paying option premia equates conceptually to paying the losses on stopped out trades that fail to catch trends.
the idea is there but the concepts and especially the exposures are completely unrelated. If you talk about the positive correlation between a long call and a long position in he underlying then thats as naive a view as it gets. Sorry, but I simply disagree to even compare those two. Anyway, have a good weekend all