Journals of conservative investing

March 21 should be March 23, and March 22 should be March 24.

 

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

TLT down 1.9%. Today's portfolio return is -1.9%.

There is no position change for Wednesday, March 25: 100% in TLT.

 

Wednesday, March 25:

TLT down 0.23%. Today's portfolio return is -0.23%.

Position for Thursday, March 26: 100% in TQQQ.

 

Thursday, March 26

TQQQ is up 16.3%. Today's portfolio return is 16.3%!

Position for Friday, March 27: 100% in QQQ.

 

Friday, March 27, 2020
QQQ down 3.4%. Today's portfolio is -3.4%.

Position for next Monday, Mar 30: 100% in TQQQ.

 

What am I missing here? Other than getting lucky on the TQQQ allocation... what is the point? You're long only and no timing/alpha is generated.

 

Well another lucky day on Monday, March 30, 2020.

TQQQ is up 10.5%, and therefore the portfolio starts the week with a 10.5% gain.

Last week's return：

Monday: 4.36%
Tuesday: -1.9%
Wednesday: -0.23%
Thursday: 16.30%
Friday: -3.4%

Cumulative return: 14.75%
Correlation to S&P 500: 0.001

S&P 500 returns: -2.93%， 9.38%， 1.15%， 6.24%， -3.34%
S&P 500 this week's cumulative return: 10.22%

 

Positions for the last day of the month, March 31, 2020.

50% in SPY, 50% in QQQ. We are still long equities.

 

if you get the beta right, why don't you need alpha?

 

Tuesday, the last day of March.

SPY down 1.64%, QQQ dropped 0.85%, the portfolio was down 1.25% today.

Positions for the first day of April, Wednesday:

50% in SPY, 50% in TQQQ.