Journal XburbX - My Plan

I might slip into one more trade for the end of the week but it depends on the next 20 minutes and what price does. Today recovered from yesterday nicely and left with a profit. Every time I enter a trade I always tell myself anything can happen. I have no idea where price is going to go no matter what it looks like. I sat on my hands and followed the hell out of my plan to take a profit.

Have a nice weekend. Going to golf

 

Hit em Long and Straight

RN

 

I have reviewed my trade batch and compared to other charts. I am not looking to make lots of adjustments when reviewing. I am looking for things that stick out and are glaring. I will review my trades every 1 month to see if there is anything that screams "stop doing this". The two adjustments will be my total risk per trade is 6 cents which includes 1 penny for entry and 1 penny for stop. I also will not be taking 2 tries on a trade. Every time a second entry was taken it was a loser besides 1 x. My thoughts on WHY the two changes make sense are as follows.

1. Less risk - I will miss trades which I dont care. Reducing risk will reduce the volatility on my own account. I will have less trades, less commission, less swing on the balance. I think in terms of how much can I lose because I don't know how much I can make until price gets to where it is going. This is a personal preference and it does not violate what price is telling me on the screen.

2. The 2nd entry attempts do violate to some extent what price is telling me. Price already failed my trade the first time, so the second time means the trade was not valid to begin with. The second entry is directly related to the first attempt failing because of price action. This is something I should have thought out before allowing the second entry to begin with.

Summary on changes - I thought about how to make changes to a plan. There are a million numbers and things that can be looked at. Some people get very attracted to x drawdown over x trades and numbers like that. I don't know if it is right or wrong, but any change in my plan must be supported by price itself and not market conditions. If I am factoring in my drawdown as a number and not relative to price action then I subjecting myself to the condition of the market. My less risk change only keeps me out of the market more, reduces risk but still is all relative to price action. I know that there will be trades that run and could have made a good bit of cash, but I am not willing to risk a lot of money to find out. The second entry is based on price not doing what it set up to do and then entering again after price already told me it wasnt going to do it. The proof was in the numbers on this one, but the reason was in the price action.


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On a side note - I shot a 42 on 9 holes last night to take the trophy in our group. For some reason this trophy makes me feel like I am playing to win the US Open. That and a couple bucks in a match makes for some fun golf. Looking to defend the trophy this afternoon. Gotta make putts

 

BD,

Took you’re post here – and went the way of price

If you don’t mind; now I would like to go the way of the stop

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Optimally each stop is placed where the reason we took the trade is invalidated – meaning; the has trade failed

Furthermore, the mkt is uncertain – meaning; we can never second guess price

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So;

Why would you exit sooner than – when price takes out your stop – which you set – where the trade failed


Is price really telling you its changed direction…., or you getting antsy / a head full of thoughts

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My two thoughts here;

Being less than clear about identifying where each trade actually fails

Or (possibly and)

Not being able to quiet your mind… sit patiently – and allow price to either hit you stop loss…, or your profit target – after you’ve entered each trade

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Exiting early / moving stops – at first blush seems to be the right thing to do…

Its saving us money by cutting our losers quicker – right?

Nope

Sitting…, waiting…, and allowing the trade to fully works itself out – is the right thing to do – whether it wins or loses



Granted; we must do some research, to understand the personality of what we’re trading…

iow its typical retracement…, its penchant for breaking the last S or R before shooting off…, its volatility…, the PA characteristics around our set up(s)…, the volume present…, the time of day…, where the candle is in its formation..,

When / were stop runs occur… when/ where pullbacks occur… when/ where reversals occur (and the PA associated with each)

ALL of IT

It is the only way to build up the confidence necessary – to sit quietly and allow each trade to do its thing – win or lose




Moving a stop – under any other circumstance than – price unexpectedly shot off in your direction…, exceeded your initial target – hence it is now time to lock in some portion of the profit

Is simply the wrong way to trade – and its wrong for several reasons

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On a different note;

I could easily argue that where a stop is placed – is also the same point where we should enter in the opposite direction…

It IS where the prior trade failed


But – this does take some mental dexterity – which we’re probably not prepared for – just yet.

And it takes an understanding of what we’re trading

And it takes an understanding of who is in charge / how active they are

And it takes an understanding of the difference between a pullback/ stop run/ reversal

And it takes an understanding of the larger trend – and where price is currently located in it

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Simply something else to ponder BD

RN

 

So based on your analysis;

Price typically really does reverse... it just makes one last move in the initial direction first


Good to know

Could be - there is a set up for that??? (a failed failure / pseudo range - breakout)

Or is it noise

RN

 

Yes. At least the way I see the market and what I look at it does. I would imagine the way I trade would hold true on any time frame . As you know my trading ain't no rocket science. It's really basic. I just believe in it.

As far as the 2nd entry failing it usually fails and results in what I define as noise. I couldn't confidently trade the reversal of my trade failing. At least not now

 

Mine too.. mine too

Putt for dough today

RN

 

RN,

Are stop runs, pullbacks, and reversals 'built' differently (prior to) or is the main focus on the PA once a high/low has been made - whether buying/selling dried up or S/R was hit, etc. I am thinking yes of course which should tip the scale in our favor if you know what you're looking for. Here are my not so tangible thoughts:

Stop runs shoot like a rocket against the trend thru S/R and never consolidate then come right back to earth,

Reversals same thing, though price is being rejected not hunted. If price doesn't continue a fairly vertical trend the other way often this point will be tested shortly after

Pullbacks I'd associate with fairly clean trends, 45 degrees, not as vertical. And the market being held after establishing new high/lows, perhaps measured moves.

 

As far as hard stops, I can't even make a case (anymore) for holding a position if the prior one minute bar, where I entered, gets taken out.

Example: I put on a long trade at the top of a range, and it fails on the 1 minute. I lose 2 tics. But the trade might not really fail til it falls 2 points. I am just looking for very low risk opportunities in this area as it churns before my conceived direction. So I would then look for another chance to get long risking little.

Maybe this approach makes more sense for me trading (highly liquid lower cost) futures or maybe its idiotic. And sometimes I may be able to enter 2 tics from trade failure but not always able to get an ideal price just yet, too slow

 

What is your larger time frame saying and how are defining a " range"? A range to me will probably be different than a range for you.