Journal of a 90% win rate trader

Discussion in 'Journals' started by PhoneticNachos, Dec 19, 2021.

  1. Thanks, I appreciate the kind words.

    From all the years I have been trading and from other forums and talks, most people didn't want to see small value trades or poor weeks.

    I can't even post my trade totals anymore because Oanda removed that account tool.

    I am a pretty transparent and honest trader. But as I have said before in my posts, I can't always trade or post.

    I sometimes goes weeks without trading. So some of these were all the trades I took for a six month period.

    I used to only trade a $2k account, and make between $500-2k a month and then withdraw it and start again, only since 2020 did I ever trade accounts over $5k.
     
    #21     Dec 20, 2021

  2. I don't have those records or screen shots available.

    It was good trades, but lower value accounts back then. Obviously I have trades that go against me too, not saying I am perfect.

    I have most of my net worth tied up in my stocks. I used to just trade forex for fun money, using a couple thousand to make a couple hundred a week or more to spend or throw into more stocks.
     
    #22     Dec 20, 2021
  3. Account right now is around $7,300. Made like $680 last week. Should be over $12k by May or earlier if things go well.

    In case people got confused with me posting trades from a year ago, this is a journal that I have kept in real time on other forums, forexfactory mainly, also babypips and earnfx and recently trade2win.

    I am mainly using this as a way to save my trades in a place easily referenced. I am slowly drafting a few ideas for trading/investing/personal finance books, I used to be a dividend investment blog writer for a few years.

    Typically I add $250-500 into my forex account each month, but if I am in the process of getting my funding ready for my stock account I will skip a month or two.

    As I invest like I am my own "pseudo hedge fund", this is a unique novel approach that has enabled me to make a broad spectrum of investments into many sectors at times over the years.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2021
    #23     Dec 20, 2021
  4. MrMuppet

    MrMuppet

    hm...average hold time for winning trades is 15 hours, average hold time for losers is 7 days.
    Do you add to losers and hope they recover somehow?
     
    #24     Dec 20, 2021
  5. Again best wishes for 2022.
     
    #25     Dec 20, 2021
  6. Thor

    Thor

    Many forex traders do Martingales. :p
    It accounts for the >90% win rate but can wipe out the account on a few losers. o_O

    The real fun starts when they make a Martingale ladder in both directions. :banghead: :D
     
    #26     Dec 20, 2021
    VPhantom, rb7 and maxinger like this.
  7. maxinger

    maxinger


    right. The high win rate is very bad.


    This is a typical high win rate trader's results:
    win 1 tick
    win 2 ticks
    win 1 tick
    win 3 ticks
    win 2 ticks
    loss 100 ticks
    win 1 tick
    win 3 ticks
    win 2 ticks
    loss 200 ticks (but the position is still open).

    win rate : 90%
    profit/loss : -85 ticks

    perhaps OP is a highly gifted trader.
    But then, he didn't disclose how he was trading.
    He just disclosed all the wonderful results.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2021
    #27     Dec 20, 2021
    legionx likes this.
  8. I don't trade a martingale system, just have a big cash reserve.

    I usually only close out trades when it passes a certain value depending on how much that trade is worth, or breaks through a range channel.

    I only scale into and out of my trades when they are in profit, never when they are bad trades.

    Another thing to keep in mind is that since I trade a range of correlated pairs, usually if I am down on one pair I am up on another.
     
    #28     Dec 21, 2021
  9. virtusa

    virtusa


    OP showed 254 winning trades (avg profit $95.47) and 22 losing trades ( avg loss $65.77).

    That means:
    • expectancy is $82.62
    • from all the profits he made in winning trades, he gave back in losing trades 5.96%.
    If his trading during the whole years is similar, it is not the 1-2 ticks profits and 100 ticks losses from your post. 276 trades in total give already more or less an idea about the performance. I think it is above average.

    I do worry a bit about the holding time of losing trades. If markets are range trading it is not so dangerous, but if there is a real trend and he is wrong, it might get quickly bad.
     
    #29     Dec 21, 2021
    Math_Wiz likes this.
  10. easymon1

    easymon1

    Do you find that your losers average adverse excursion is 'large' relative to your winners average fortunate excursion? Got numbers?
     
    #30     Dec 21, 2021