Thanks a lot, I appreciate it. I was looking over the chart I posted while answering your questions and it definitely provided a simplicity/clarity that I'm going to try and recall in tomorrow's session. I would like to be able to post a chart in which I successfully avoid overtrading/emotional sequences. Thanks again!
While you're trading MES keep an eye on what happens at/after the 1:1 for both long/short entry signals.
will do, thanks. Just off the top of my head, I feel like a lot of times there is a pullback to take break even stops or just grab liquidity above the swing
Sim traded oil today a bit but no live trades because I had other obligations and started 2 hours late, wasn't feeling it.
.Hope u feel better tomorrow. I always look forward to seeing your charts and entries. Showing charts with entries and the rationale is I think the best way to communicate about trading.
Haven't been a big fan of the price action the last couple days. Thats not to say I think its objectively "bad", I just haven't seen many simple or clear opportunities. This short on MES could definitely been managed better, there was a chance to add on and the trend would have been easy enough to trail. However, I decided to scalp out of it because I thought another grind up to retest the high was plausible, and in general I have been skeptical lately as I said. I also took a very small loss on M2K before the MES trade, picking a lower high in the same manner, which also probably led to my doubts about the MES trade. In hindsight there were reasons to avoid that entry, entering above the 21EMA on a neutral, inside bar, in congestion, in an area of relatively equal highs where a stop run was likely. I know a lot of people are skeptical about "signal bars", trend lines, ma's, etc. For example, the criticism of signal bars is that where they close is pretty much arbitrary. The argument against trend lines is that they are subjective. In general, the idea is that they "don't work". My opinion is that it's wrong to base whether or not a moving average "works" on whether or not money can be made according to some entry strategy using them. Does the moving average show the average price over x number of previous bars? Then it works. Whether or not you make money is a totally different topic. A moving average does what it's supposed to do as long as its calculated correctly. Similarly, if a signal bar accurately displays the high, low, open, close of a bar, then that means it works. It's not that I believe price has to do something following such and such a bar. However, a strong rip upwards on a one minute chart has to contain bullish bars. A strong, fast rip upwards can't be made out of all bearish bars. Maybe the only abstract exception to this would be if there were consecutive large gaps up between the closes and openings of consecutive bearish bars, but I don't think I've ever seen that happen. So based on that observation, it's reasonable to enter in the direction of a signal bar after it closes, because if price does continue in the same direction, that signal bar would have been the earliest evidence of that move.
How are your channels drawn? An auto-indicator or manually and if the latter how do you determine starting points?
Manually. Starting point is just the swing high or low where the trend originated, usually connected to the body (opening price) of the starting point of the 2nd leg within the trend.
A test of the prior extreme is always plausible, but the bull response to that break of the trendline & 4 bear bars closing on their lows was weak. You can use those gaps as an additional gauge of strength.
Yup I agree, that's what I saw. But also I think the 3rd touch of the trend line may actually have been the break and retest. I had my 2nd touch on the wick rather than the body, which obscured that break.