Jordan Kimmel

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by TM_Direct, Apr 29, 2003.

  1. I went to a convention this weekend and had an opportunity to listen to Jordan Kimmel of the Magnet Fund speak...I also was able to sit down and share some drinks and insight with's the basic outline of his market thoughts:

    Bush vs Gore
    China Spy plane
    War in Afghanistan
    Martha Stewart
    space shuttle explosion

    He had a lot more on the list but his point was, that it's been nothing but bad news and if you read the papers or listen to the news it's the end of the market....he also commented how in 1999 and 2000 it was ' nothing but good news and the market can only go up"....he believes all the buyers are waiting on the sideline for a definitive signal, but when the signal comes it will be too late....he predicted a bug turn around later this year and pointed out that the market is never as good as you think, or in this case, never as bad as you think.

    I'm just wondering what you guys think?
  2. classic contrarian thinking, right?
  3. Interesting. He has a longer term contrarian view. That's fine.

    Kimmel has had career on the sell-side and one would expect that he would emphasize the potential for bullishness.

    However, isn't it too early to separate the rally from the war?
  4. In the very long run.. its all about earnings and sales...

    By the way.. for every bad thing Kimmel told you.. I can mention a good thing... Like... major war victory in Afghan, Iraq.. gone with Arafat.. valuations are cheaper...

    THe point is that you can paint the picture with any brush... If companies make money with increasing sales.. they will be moving up and vice versa.. Its always been that way..

    The major headline themes should always be ignored... remember the local news or CNN.. almost always talks about negatives.. thats the way the media was created.. to feed on worries.

    By the way... what happened with Martha Stewart really effect the stock market? ( except her stock)??

    What stocks in the US when down because of SARS?

    Were stocks really affected by the spy plane going down?

    In the long run.. none of these media events make a difference,,

    -- As far as predicting the market in the long run... Its a complete waste of time.. Let the market action itself dictate your reactiveness... Trading/investing is about reacting not predicting... THe people that predict never make any $.. except for their service they are trying to sell.. :)

  5. he also had an interesting "theory" or possibly fact that i have not heard before....He said in 87 after the crash, Greenspan got together with Merrill, smith and and all the big wirehouses and they began a methodical assault on all the shorters out there to drive them out of the market....he made it seem like it was a secret underground conspiracy , but also a fact...anyone else here this?....anyone one but harrytrader:D

  6. Total BS.. If that was true.. than I am sure Greenspan has an etrade account somewhere and trades right before he makes a fed decision...

  7. I have heard that anyone in Greenspan`s immediate family are limted to investing in government securities only. Has anybody else heard this? Just curious.
  8. you're reacting to something you saw ( setup ), but making a prediction it continues your way ( actual trade ), reacting again when it does or doesnt go your way ( out of the trade ).........I agree react more and predict less.......:D
  9. It's funny you mentioned the " IT'S ALL ABOUT EARNINGS AND REVENUES" his speech he told everyone to WATCH OUT about that for two reasons: 1) Earnings are based on the PAST and 2) ANYONE can make a balance sheet show a light of WCOM GLOBAL and ENE, this is very true....think about it?

    25 million in revenue, 30 million in costs can easily be hidden or changed if you move some hard costs into this section or that or accrue certain bills for next period, or do what CISCO is notorious for, include REVENUE that's been earned.....but not yet collected.

  10. You missed the point... Lets say company XYZ announces earnings tomorrow that are up 1000% and sales are up %2000... I bet the stock would already be in an uptrend and most probably continue its uptrend. But if 2 months later we find out the earnings are fake.. the stock would have still been in an uptrend up until the company announced its earnings were fake... I dont understand your logic about fake earnings? Look at a stock like BG today.. you will know what I mean.. Are you telling me everytime a stock announces great earnings and it goes up.. is not right?

    Also.. a few bad apples like WCOM, ENE.. and the others.. do not dictate the truth of the overall market.. There are 10,000 companies.. what % of companies had bogus earnings in relation to the total?? %0.001

    Kimmel says.. earnings are based on the past.. hmm... What type of analysis is based on future data? What is future data? Anytime someone says.. something like the chart shows the past.. or earnings are the past... I know who I am dealing with.. lol

    #10     Apr 29, 2003