I am starting this briefing section to help me and other ES participants have a clearer picture of whats going on and the day ahead. Im not selling anything, so please no bashing. Other ES participants feel free to add your comments. Im a daytrader and don't hold positions overnight. Hopefully it can be of good to everyone. Comments re previous day: Oil spiked above $70 causing some selling pressure, but late afternoon buying on good volume as oil fell back down. action was mostly within the day's before range. New events for today: 8:30AMEST Gross Domestic Product consensus 3.5% 10:00AMEST NAPM - Chicago consensus 61.0 10:30AMEST EIA Petroleum status report Earnings announcements today: Freddie Mac(FRE) Tiffany & Co(TIF) Key levels for today: Top of downward channel around 1212. S/R line around 1210 baseline support around 1202 multi-day resistance at 1214 PDH: 1210.5 PDL: 1201.5 PDC: 1210 Trend: Short term: DOWN Medium term: UP Volatility: VIX yesterday: 13.65 short term cycle: range expansion still un-decisive though Pre-market comments: I think investors have some work to do today. combing over katrina, and who's feeling it the worst and how bad. GDP report, how are we growing? and where? too slow -> not enough profit potential or too fast -> inflation/rates. up side is that gov. is helping oil supply. pre-market volume is good and there is some early movements as we speak testing 1212 level, oil is holding under $70. i have no bias here today, just waiting on those news announcements and there implications, otherwise we could be in for some more range bound action. j.
i want this journal to be more of a hang out spot for ES players. i dont want to show boat my trades, i think that would put pressure on me. I want this journal to be a place to discuss yesterdays action and the day ahead action, not specific methods for pulling money out of the market.
Wednesday, 31st August 8.15AMEST comments re previous day: well apparently the fed wont be so hawkish because of oil and katrina, bonds warmed up to that, oil sold of with the help of gov. some good upside levels were broken, eom window dressing, short term trend might have changed. News today: Jobless claims 8.30am personal income 8.30am construction spending 10am ISM Mfg Index 10am Earnings announcements today: JDS Uniphase Corporation(JDSU) Ciena Corporation(CIEN) H&R Block, Inc.(HRB) Key levels for today: 1226 1223 1214 Trend: short term: possible downside reversal medium term: up Volatility: short term cycle: expansion -> contraction expected Pre-market comments: pre-market volume is little weaker and in a narrow range. lots of news today could cause some range bound action. asian indices higher. oil hovering around $69 a barrell. also with oil, whats the bigger effect, the govt help or katrina. j.
The Friday before Labor day is historically bullish. But I think the markets could go down. The dollar has gone down very hard the past couple days. Obviously the world banks think Katrina has hurt Americas economy.
you would think so, given that the market is acting like nothing is wrong, when the direct and in-direct effects of katrina are gonna be deep and long lasting. but the market is a funny beast, todays action(thursday) was a large triangle, could be a big move friday.
Friday 2nd september comments re previous day: pause after up move on lighter volume. price action formed triangle. no heavy selling pressure. oil remained tame. continued buying in oil stocks. News today: Employment situation 8:30am. Earnings announcements today: No significant earnings for today. Key levels: 1230 1225 1220 1215 1210 Volatility: contracted - > could see directional expansion today. Trend: short term up medium term up Pre-market comments: employment news just came out, bonds seeing selling pressure a little buying interest in stocks, oil down to 68.60. volume was weak now building nicely, moderate range. market is looking to the upside, but a afternoon reversal wouldnt surprise me. j.
I'm predicting an up day on Tuesday. Oil prices are heading lower. Bonds and the Dollar have stablized. S&P back above 50 ema And on the day after Labor Day the Dow is up 8 of last 10
i agree. some have positioned themselves that way too, evident in the size that was hitting the offer in the last minutes of the session. evident buying on a hammer formation. still theres 3 days of news, i think investors will have a better idea of katrina come monday, and we could see some expanded direction.
lmao we were up 1% last week when in reality we should have been down 10% on this disaster. just as last week suprised people thgis week will too as we head down. earnings will be terrible in the dec qtr and in 2006 as nobody expects that