@hilmy83 had a $60,000 month over what appears to be hundreds of trades starting with a very small capital. You do not have to be a wizard to see he has an edge.
Yeah, well without the Sharpe, Sortino and VAMI stats it's tough to determine that. He's had some negative months. Let's revisit this at the end of the year when there is more data.
There is no question he is doing a great job. However it you make a 6,46% return on the day with just netting 11 NQ points ... 11 NQ points is nothing in these high volatility market conditions, such a move can happen in seconds. Let alone what could happen if we go back to the crazy volatility we had earlier this year. So with that much risk, a major loss is just waiting around the corner (again). It is inevitable. A losing streak and the account is down all the way back to where you started or even lower. You are doing a great job, just a little (a lot) to risky to my taste.
Guys, I know how Hilmy trades, but of course I won't tell you directly)) for three reasons: 1. You shouldn't surf the forums, but stare at the charts in real time for months. 2. The edge is very thin. But on the other hand, it is almost constant, it does not work only at the edges of the volatility spectrum. 3. In his statistics, the most important indicator is MAE, and it is terrible: regularly you will have to see ~ x10 profit. And on x20 you will have to sit in position, clenching the balls into a fist. "You know, Vovka, you don't need such a car, brother" (c) This can be traded if you are ready to lose 60-80% of your deposit two or three times and you look far ahead, and the scale of consciousness is significantly larger than your current deposit. To trade, your ass must be securely covered on all fronts. You must be in a high saturated emotional orbit, lead a diverse and multifaceted real life - a good main job, built your own house, family, friends, sports are required for the correct chemical balance. This method will not allow you to get out of poverty and solve current problems. And that makes him dangerous. This method can only make the rich and slimy richer, and he will kill the poor and weak. But there is good news)) This method requires almost no personal time. One clean entry-exit or entry-refill-exit trade. Even brushing your teeth takes more time per day)) I will give you one hint - when you think "what will happen now?", Hilmy is either already in the trade or has already left. In fact, there are more than one hints in the text. Don't torture Hilmy, torture your brain looking at the market!))
He's also posted daily losses of 81 % and 30 %. I do believe Hilmy got an edge, but it's obvious he's taking on huge risks to generate his returns. A system with a 90 % win rate can easily get crushed on one single bad trade. Add in some revenge trading to finish it off. If he's stacking away capital at end of each month like he's doing now - maybe it will work out great for him.
Hilmy83 is not going around and bragging that he has an edge (small, big, sometimes) nor does he guarantee whatever it is he's doing today...he'll be able to do the same thing next year or even long term. In contrast, a few seem to be bother by whatever it is that he's doing. Those calling him a con / fraud just because he doesn't want to share some performance metrics / risk metrics that he has already discussed his poor risk management a few times here earlier in this thread and in the thread at the other forum while showing live trade sessions, redacted screenshots of broker trade execution platform and broker statements that all do correlate with each other. I saw the live videos. There's a problem in the trading plan. I don't need to see pinpointed risk metrics to know that. I also see that hilmy83 knows that and is something he's trying to fix. Simply, he's not hiding anything and has openly discussed those huge losing trading days although there were a few recording problems in those live videos involving the huge losing trading days. Understandable, having a huge losing day...psychologically is tough to let the video continue all the way to the end of the trading session. I wouldn't be surprise if he threw some free weights at the computer. Simply, you can not psychologically share everything...everybody has their sharing limits. You share what's important to you...not what's important to others. Irony, the same people stating its a con / fraud are using other trade journals here at ET where the OPs has no verification of trade performance...they do not call those OPs out as a con / fraud. Even worst, they're not showing their own verification of trade performance while calling someone a con / fraud. Just the same, the same folks that talk about photoshop are not able to take hilmy83 screenshots, broker statements, live trade videos and show how it was photoshop / faked and correlated...nothing from them. In my opinion...that's the real fraud. The good thing is that hilmy83 finally understood the importance of diversification to prevent risk of ruin. For example, he has gotten into dividends to generate a small constant income and I believe he's exploring options trading on the side. Also, he has a job although I'm not sure if he still does during this Pandemic. Heck, he may already had understood risk of ruin and was slowly quietly putting a puzzle together to prevent risk of ruin considering typically I've seen others doing the same via thinking the answer was in getting a CME seat on the exchange. I believe (I could be wrong) he has a fat home in Texas from conversations I saw when he and @destriero seem to iron out some disagreements. Actually, it made me wonder about the commonalities of profitable trading, working out strenuously and a few other commonalities I won't mention that I've noticed that many others that bitch a lot don't seem to have. Thus, he doesn't seem to be some fat tard sitting at the computer all day via his recent videos / images with him working out...he may be a little into bodybuilding or something like that to stay in shape. Together, all of that helps ensure or minimizes that risk of ruin although one of my favourites is investing in real estate as a source of income to offset in disastrous trading outcomes. Too many traders throw 100% everything into to trading and staring at the charts all day. If they have a blow-up...they usually can not bounce back. Performance metrics / risk metrics are variables to look at but there's another variable going on outside of the trading that has equally importance and I think that's what hilmy83 has been focusing on. In fact, Hilmy83 has given a peek view into that other variable unlike many here at ET. Heck, most of the a-holes here at ET can will not even reveal their city / country they live in no matter how many times you ask them. Thus, do not assume just because someone can speak / write in English here at ET...its a person that's located somewhere in the USA. Exactly...balance people and you can use that to stay in this trading game a very long time. If he can consistently flush out his profits each month or quarterly and not wait to tally it all up at the end of the year...he'll then figure out how to make this trading a career even though it will minimize his compounding ability. wrbtrader
Maybe he discovered his edge recently and this might explain why he continues to trade NQ instead of trading forex like he used to be? As long as he knows how to manage his risks in his trading system or able to identify flaws in his system I'm sure he'll continue to rack in more profits 'cuz he'll improve his skills the more he trades.
That speaks either to position sizing or lapses in emotional control and discipline. The edge is itself obvious.