This is as true a statement that has ever been made. If you trade with Sierra Charts their Trading Log gives you the largest open profit and the largest open loss on every trade. It is rare when either one of these figures is zero.
I think @bbpp is suggesting the old adage "selling begets selling" (or buying begets buying) is a real thing. That adage is rooted in human behavior and is indeed correct. The caveat is, that usefulness regarding a "specific trade" entry or exit however, is dependent on market environment, style and expectation of trade, and the methods and/or techniques to determine the "begetting", or lack of. @Seaweed otoh, is basically confirming the caveat, and is also correct. Both POV's are correct. My POV as an intraday trader, flat end of day, is in line with @Seaweed. "Perfect" entry or exit does happen, but expectation of perfect entry or exit begets disappointment.
What I said is "buying lower" is a losing strategy. Now you argue with "buying a few ticks lower." These are two different concepts. "buying lower" means you trade against trend. "buying a few ticks lower" you don't necessarily trade against trend, but just pick more contracts at a few ticks lower by price fuctuation within trend.So what is benefit of your adding more positions at a few ticks lower? For a little lower price it gives you tiny cost benefit at the risk of over loading your position.
I don't like to kick people when they are down, but I will give people tough love (even though you are not going to listen to me). I don't think you should be trading live right now. Numbers don't lie. You don't have a solid written trading plan. And that usually comes from not doing enough research. Go back to the drawing board and back test a solid plan. I'm not saying ditch your strategy. But what I am saying is you have to have a solid written plan with rules. Good luck my friend.
if it was that easy; everybody in ET will be zillionnaire; and all brokers go broke; especially those that takes the other side. statistically; the price is more likely to remain at the same value; 2910, 2910, 2910...
MarketAddict, Do you think the "live stream" could be impacting his trade decisions or limiting his ability to recognize when he's trading against the trend (that may be his trading plan...he trades against the trend or could be a mean reversion trader) ??? I've seen traders do very well in private live documentations with just a few trading pals but when they document their trading more public in front of people that are more anonymous and more critical...the trader seems to have more pressure to prove they are right or take more risks. I may be wrong about the above opinion because he was not live streaming when his biggest losing trading days occur. The one commonality I have notice with documentating the trading in front of an audience (chat room, live screen sharing, live stream, in person...ranked in order of popularity) is that there is an increase in the pressure & increase in the fear of trading...most can not manage it that well and they trade outside of their trading plan and they then panic after a few unusual huge trade day losses. I see this in the reduction of the documentations. Thus, as each month passes...there's less documentation. Yet, I'm not sure if that's because the trader has more personal issues not related to trading, becoming more bored with the documentation, realizing its too much stress or the trader sense that this type of documentation is counter-productive to their trading although we as the viewer / reader enjoys it and should be very grateful that someone has the guts to put themself out there like this the way hilmy83 has done. I've seen so many trade journals by people that post no verification beyond a text message (e.g. bought / sold) or a small snippet image of a profit / loss column that its comical. Yet, that type of documentation seems to be the norm and accepted. Hats off to hilmy83 for stepping outside the box with his documentation but I do wish he had live streamed all of his trading days because recently he's been discussing a few trading days that were not live streamed and those trading days involve unusual market conditions. Also, I've notice his live streams seems to be slowly decreasing since 10 months ago when he first begin to show it on Youtube. He's now doing only about 5 - 7 live streams per month. wrbtrader
He has to make changes because mathematically from the statistical sampling that he has shown us the "Risk of Ruin" is 100%. I love Himly's guts and I hate to see it happen but maybe leaving the US session is the change that will save him but I don't think so. His style just opens up too much exposure to risk.
quite true, risk of ruin is there for sure. A montecarlo test will say so. i recommend one solution that am pretty sure will improve hilmys trading: 1. do not add to losers. only have one position at a time. go full size is no problem. but dont add. 2. use a strict SL for all positions. use BE stop when position moved in favour 3. when a position hit a stop loss, call it a day. go home do something else. you are rotten for the day 4. Dont trade counter trend during US session. only momentum/breakout. trade CT in Asian time, where Shenzo Abe and partners are waiting for Trump to wakeup because they have no fucking clue what is going on I am trading this way myself. it gives me piece of mind.
Yea maybe that could be one of the reasons, but he also has to do something with his rules.. Losing 80% in one day is not good..
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/joining-the-cme-gang.334231/page-3#post-4893690 He needs to get into his own head and stop the silly. His thoughts are similar to mine. I can sense it. I can feel it, as much as he wants to deny it. Hilmy, take a breather, just trade for yourself, not for others!