I followed the initial thread closely and am did learn from it but I don't think the method as originally described works so well for the dax as a primary method of generating your signals. It seems that the dax can be very jumpy rather than breaking out thru the extreme penetrations. I also agree with db that there are much better methods for trading ES right now than breakouts. Maybe I'm wrong but on DAX I've noticed many of the games that I beleive some of the bigger traders play to lure traders into a breakout, take it up a point or 2 and then reverse to stop you out. Manytimes it will continue in the direction of the breakout but it's hard when you have to take a 6-8 point loss on a stop to consistently get the risk/reward payback necessary to make it feasible over the long run. I've found that other methods work better to get a lower risk entry. Take yesterday for example, we had 100+ day in the dax but I don't believe there was a single entry for taking a 5-10 minute breakout. You could try to trade the 1 min for the same setup but I think you get chopped to pieces over the long run. There are much better ways, for me anyway. The dax presents some really nice opportunities but you have to have a good plan or a good feel to trade it descretionally, personally I got about 58 points/lot yesterday but certainly not trading the JR breakout. That said.. study the JR thread I believe there is much wisdom there. If you understand the principles behind what JR proposed it will definitely help you in the long run.
I don't know that the game aspect is as much of a problem with futures as it is with stocks. Rather there is an effort to find buyers and sellers at certain points, and if those buyers/sellers don't materialize, there's no place for the trade to go. You want to find those points at which trading attracts attention. These little swingpoint BOs often attract that attention. If they attract enough attention to move the price, you're in. If they don't, you want to be out ASAP, and a wide stop is not the best option. The best of these trades do not require a lot of time to "ripen". They either go or they don't. You really don't even need the BBs for these trades if you know what you're looking at, but I find them handy for setting alarms. If you keep in mind that you're looking for indications of a trend and not just movement against some line or envelope or other, you may make good sense out of the strategy.
know that. Johnny rotten of "the sex pistols" fame real name is John Lydon. Johnny rotten has snuck back into ET
Thanks for all of the input. As I said before, I am attempting to arrive at a method that will allow me to trade the futures intraday, and all of your input has been very helpful. I will keep watching and studying.
What can I say, when a person is banned, you are not permitted to talk with them privately even if you want to!!! Bad for your health you see. Actually, it's funny because in a weird way this board has grown on me. There's still the dweebs (read 'Elite' members) waffling on with their inane one-liners, but I've come to appreciate that there's a pretty loose rein given on censorship. The JR ban was totally ridiculous given the contribution and lack of any warning, but overall this board is better than most. I've actually managed to get banned from a couple of places within 48 hours without using a single swear word! The only reason I took exception to db's re-posting the method was because I felt it wasn't an accurate reflection of its potential and was more of a disservice to those interested in it, since it slashed the whole thing in half by cutting out the Eurex symbols. "JR Lite" I called it ...and because it stripped out all inter-market analysis (the guts) that is what it was. Otherwise, re-post and analyse away ...it's out there for public consumption after all ...& db's OK with me, as much as any elite member can be (his sarcasm makes me laugh). In terms of it's ability to make money lately: the method posted as is, would be very hard to do with great profit when trading the ES and NQ this last month or two. In that analysis, db is correct. The good news is that, it should also have been hard to lose money this past month or two. The rules should have kept you out and doing nothing on most days. That's encouraging. Because markets change and when we start seeing trendier action, the profitability should return. So, how to make money in the meantime? ADAPT. I guess you could try trading ranges, buying lows, selling highs but I'm really hprrible at such trading so I don't do it. My attitude is to stick to what I am comfortable with, but adapt my rules and more importantly the markets traded. This method still works a treat in the DAX using a 10 point (250 Euro) target nearly everyday. So while you US-centric folk are staring at your crappy ES charts all day ...you probably missed those one or two winners in the DAX. The truth is that I can't even remember the last time I took a trade in the ES or NQ, such has been my 'shift'. I'm not saying the DAX is the "be all and end all" but I do like the way it moves compared to the ES right now. I've even been using this method on a 1 minute DAX chart using a 5 point target with 3 point stop and BE trigger after 2.5 points. Practically scalping which I said to never do in the original thread! Do that 4-5 times a day (maybe with only one winner and 4 BE's) ...add-on your single or double 10 point gainer and sit back and laugh at the ES/NQ. As I crudely put it in the original thread: don't trade in the "shit". How many of you guys even know that the DAX is still open between 09:30 and 14:00 EST? That said, I have seen one or two instances in the ES of late where the classic pattern has worked well. Find a symbol that moves and change your timeframe and targets if need be. But understand if any market moves, then guaranteed then many of those moves will be setup on the top or bottom of the Bollinger line. The rest is adaptation, interpretation and application. Remember, it's not a mechanical method. The world has moved on since JR was killed, so has the method, although the core concept remains. To move with the times requires another discussion. But doing that risks the tweebs coming out the woodwork to hound me, and someone wanting to ban me. Do I need that in my life? I don't think so.
John, I really appreciate your response. I was going to let this thread die when I thought you might be opposed to it. I have been reading some of the journals that seemed to be posted by people that were actually trading, and I found Johnny Rotten's to be particularly helpful. You used several of the concepts - particularly watching different markets - that I have been trying to get a handle on. I wish I was a little farther along, and could post some questions/observations about my actual trades, but I need to spend a little more time studying first. I usually trade stocks in pairs or at least long and short, so trading without a hedge is a little different than what I have become accustomed to. I do have a couple of questions if you are inclined to respond. Have you tried entering trades in all of the markets you watch when you get a signal in one? Have you eliminated the time of day requirement completely with your current DAX trading? If so, has it been replaced by any other "filter" - volume etc. Thanks for the information on what you are currently doing. If you would like to elaborate further I would certainly be interested, but I can understand if you don't want the hassle.
Public Image Limited anyway, I would like second Mr. Lydons view of ES being shit. After watching DAX and even ESTX50, I would say ES is Extra Shitty. Let me explain. There are SO many programs and computers and arbs hitting ES every second that it jumps around like nobodys buisness. It literally breaths a full handle. And how bad can the attempeted breakouts be? On tick, stop, reverse direction, back to retest, rinse and repeat. It is junk for breakouts unless YOU think you can play it with a wide stop. The only time I like it is on the open, but that is a different topic. The DAX on the other, can hit a new pivot high or low by one tick, and then watch out, Katy bar the door. And if it does not run right away, get the hell out for the reversal may be coming. Anyway, those are my observations. I will venture to say that ES has been the single greatest destroyer of wealth in retail trading accounts that has ever been invented. Someone at IB should REALLY tell how many blown out 5k accounts they see each week. Most the people trading it are losing their ass. Most the people posting on it are lyers. These are the facts. Best, Mike
Johnny, The way you busted dummyphoenix is hilarious. I'm referring to the following: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=276568#post276568 I think the word "hypocrite" comes to mind. Johnny, don't pay dummyphoenix any mind, you busted him attempting to dig up your bones after saying he was "through with it". I think that's called talking out of both sides of your mouth, and dummyphoenix is the best at that. As i've said before, he can start an argument stuck in an elevator by himself. I believe it's called loneliness. I've followed your words, Johnny. I have been banned here over 10 times. I consider them all notches in my belt. And I've been put on ignore enough times to pat myself on the back for a job well done. Beware Johnny, the smarter you are here, the more the groupies will come after you. You had it right in the beginning with your summation of the 4 groups on ET. Nothing comes from being intelligent around here, except alot of jealousy. And jealousy is shown in the form of attack.