What if @vanzandt is actually surf and has been trolling all of us all along - [/QUOTE] Vanz has nothing to do with Mr. Surf. I tried to follow the rest but lost sight of it all. Go long your equity positions until second week of September. *shrugs*
Vanz has nothing to do with Mr. Surf. I tried to follow the rest but lost sight of it all. Go long your equity positions until second week of September. *shrugs*[/QUOTE] Bah, real life calls. I have failed my charge!~ Bugger!
Dickey Doo: Some might say I have spent a life time looking for the easy way. Dare I say the easy way has always had a way of finding me. In High School, two weeks before I would leave the goat roping town of Bossier City, LA (East TX if you will) and move to the big city (Tampa, FL) an older dude said he would back me playing pool. He would put up the cash and we would split the profits. I introduced him to my friend Mike. To this day I have no idea if that offer was legitimate or not. Being that age with long hair and a penchant for hanging out in dive bars - I liked action! - two things were certain. People would offer me drugs, but I was always suspect of older dudes offering me anything. What was the other thing? Take a guess! For the first time I had visions of taking my cue on the road and that I did. McDermott, Hubler, and I hopped on the first bus to Tampa. About three miles from the bus station, located on Tampa Ave (across the street from the police station) was Bakers; the pool hall. This would be the first time I would lay my eyes on nine foot tables. Above each table there were two strings with circular, oblong beads. The beads were used to keep count: games won, balls dropped or money owed. Located on the West side of this dungy building was an old soda machine. Two metal cables ran from that pop machine to two separate metallic buttons. As it turned out that out of date dispenser was always out of order unless you knew the secret. The top button, when depressed, would trigger a familiar sound as a can of Busch beer would come rumbling out. The other magic wonder would ellicit Natural Light. My kind of place. I was but 17. Bakers didn't have a liquor license at the time. Technically, legally, I was not old enough to drink. A match made in heaven. That was a bonus. I was there for the action.
Dickey Doo part two: I would quickly learn that I did not have the skill set, or the mind set, to run with this crew. I witnessed Steve Cook run 154 balls in a game of straight pool. That was the level of competition. Wagers would run into the thousands. I knew I could never be Steve Cook. He was a legend. He once spotted me the seven in a game of nine ball. It was a race to 11 and he spotted me nine games to boot. We were only playing for $20. Even with a kid Steve didn't play for free. To me it was the highlight of my summer and of course I lost. In that first game I missed one shot and watched him run the table 11 straight times! But then, there was Dickey Doo. Why did they call him Dickey Doo? Because his stomach sticks out farther than his Dickey Doo! Steve taught me that the big boys never play for free; sort of like the market if you ask me. The only difference is that Mr. Market takes no pity on children or the elderly. But it was Dickey Doo that taught me the lesson that I could not - would not - learn until I would be nearing my final run. Never take on a game that you cannot win! Let the action come to you and stack the odds in your favor. That is why I do not trade every day. But, if I wait for potential trend days, I am no longer in the way. The wind is at my back. I am one with the stream. I am like a fish IN water! Maybe. Maybe not. But! At least the odds are in my favor.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wa...oint-tumble-in-the-dow-industrials-2017-07-28 I am not in the prediction business. However, this article points out an interesting stat. " ... for the S&P 500, going back to 1950, 61 of the past 67 years have had a 5% downdraft at least once, or 91% of all years, according to Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist, at LPL Financial." So, let's just use a round number of 6,000 for the NQ. A 5% move would be 300 points. Catching the entire move is unrealistic, gap or no gap. But, if one holds until the close - profit targets be damned - even if you identify the trend move late, catching 30% of the move is quite realistic. That would amount to 100 NQ points. $2,000. So, on this fictional paper trade account that would amount to a 40% gain off the original 5 grand. But, let's say you had 30 grand in your account, but you were only playing three contracts. That is is 6 grand, or 20%, in one fell swoop. So, why design a strategy to catch these large trend days when they rarely happen? For one, look how many times a 2.5% move happens - quite a bit. Keeping all ratios the same, but dividing by two, those are impressive gains and percentages! The difference is the frequency. If you can switch gears feom mean reversion to trend following my hat is off to you. I cannot! Simple systems for not so simple minds. Btw, you still get to keep all the chips you acquire when the market is trending up.