Discussion in 'Journals' started by johnnyrock, Jul 20, 2017.
New balance $4910
Please remember that this is a journal, first. We both accept adult responsibility for any discussions that ensue. Whether or not we choose to participate will be wholly identified by our intent carried out by one's compulsion to initiate. Trolls are welcome. Who knows what one can learn from a troll?
Tape reading, according to me, and for me. The premise:
3bt setup at a key level on the 30'
fluid stop based on pace with a non-negotiable, nuclear stop set as well
rapid price action can cause me to freeze
Rapid price action can also be used as a signal at key levels
entered on break of the 30' setup (this is a delayed quote, so I have to also use the real time 5' chart with OX quotes to visually see the pattern setting up in real time and to play the break)
bearish bias so I played the break
Why cover? This is how I tape read to manage trades:
I only use level one quotes looking for pace
As an example, yesterday's trend day down felt like a wet blanket laying on the market. The selloffs were orderly until another whoosh down when the pace would pick up.
Using today's first trade as an example, pace picked up on the break. Good sign!
You could see pace picking up on the level one. The chart printed a reversal bar
What the bar lacks is a feeling of pace
Identify that feeling you get when a trade is rapidly moving against you.
Identify the charting landscape and do your best to get in the way of your reptilian, dinosaur brain.
This is the part of the brain that goes into fight or flight. Fighting the market would be averaging into a loser. Freezing would be allowing the position to run against you, indefinitely, potentially
My experience - losing money, blowing stops - is what taught me this method. There is a pace to the market. You can FEEL when you are trapped. Fight or flight kicks in. Your breathing may even quicken as your breaths get shorter. Your mind actually shuts down as well as the reptilian part of the brain supercedes the pre-frontal cortex of the brain; this is the rational part of the brain
So now you have another tool, for some of you, a choice. Do we listen to our FEELINGS when we are trading? Don't confuse feelings with HOPE. Hope is not a feeling. Dread is a feeling. Greed is a motivator. Hope is used by the most evil, manipulative elements of our society. Hope will steal from you. Your feelings will reward you.
Don't fight that feeling. Feelings are the barometer of our soul.
We are taught not to listen to our feelings and we wonder why the divorce rate is so high. You probably know someone who had a "gut" feeling and didn't listen, right?
Our bodies are complex machines and to discount feeling would be akin to using a 56k modem downloading your favorite images. Not ideal, and sometimes it will result in fatal errors, blow ups if you will.
Downtrends, the easy ones with the most potential, should rarely have a sense of urgency. My belief is this sense of order is used by PROs to feed retail stocks that they are allowing to drift lower. Until the oscillators read OVERSOLD. Then there is another push, running stops, going lower. If there were buyers, or if it was a STOP RUN, PACE picks up immediately. You can SEE it and you can FEEL it.
Yes yes, all of that...
@johnnyrock Do you have an answer for https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/johnny-rocks-comeback.311429/page-29#post-4503381
For some reason I thought gold was $12.50/tick and each tick was a quarter.
Its actually $10/tick and each tick is $0.10.
If gold makes a new relative high on the weekly chart, I will buy the micro gold contract for a swing trade. (Break of the bull flag.)
I am currently short corn (December contract) for a swing trade.
NQ bullish on the weekly. This will be hard for me, but I need to open my horizons on the NQ and play both sides. However, I also need to limit my trades to strong moves as well. Easier said than done, but that is exactly what I will do.
Corn, take profits on the next impulse down. Potential support near 360 cents and the move down has been vertical. Tighten stop!
CL may be carving out a bottom. 52 is a key level which would cause me to stalk longs.
Short term bias: bearish. Resistance between 5850 and 5900. New highs negates this bias
Long term bias: bullish. Support on the weekly is around 5600. 200 point drop from these levels without changing the bias.
Markets fall faster than they rise. Do not sleep on down trend days.
Why? Why not just go into GC? MGC will only help you if you have so little capital left that you would need to suffer drawdowns if you are wrong, for 1/10th the penalty. What is going on over there?