He definitely contributed to my bank roll. many that was some good intraday trend trading when vn was getting his ass whopped.
I love this, all this talk about how bad the drawdowns are in trendfollowing. What about buy and hold, what are the drawdowns for that strategy? If you invested in SPYs your max drawdown is 44%, and 5 years later still trying to hit the high water mark, John henry has never taken that long. Worse if you invested in cubes, your max drawdown is 81% and 5 years later no where near getting back to even. Buy and holders and other strategies face much bigger drawdowns but act like trendfollowing is sooo risky. I say BS, TF is much less risky than b & h and John Henry will make much better returns than Market Surfer ever will.
As a relative newcomer you must know that we suspect jay gould is hank rollins or in real life Dave Goodboy. Who claims to be buddies with his hero Victor Neiderhoeffer. Victor very dogmatically asserts that trend following is an illusion. And cites slectively crafted stats that seem to prove him correct. (interestingly he eliminates from consideration times when the market acts out of character) He therefore only believes in reversions to the mean. And reccommends for others the concept of buying an holding because only highly trained harvard graduates with musical backgrounds can count properly. He still asserts these beliefs although he blows up like old faithfull. His m.o. seems to be the following. Take on others money and fade moves. Keep fading that move until you lose a great deal of it. When the public asks for their money back refuse -- put on bigger trades and sell premium. You therefore either make new equity highs and are idolized or you blow up and lose hundreds of millions. Dave thinks this is admirable. Others do not.
John Henry -- The Next Blow Up?? trend following delusion shattered... Teleb -- Out of Business ??? Seykota -- Out of his mind??? I think Hank's a really good guy but for fun: guess the next headline?
he may have more money. But in my opinion he is lowest form of hustler without any integrity. If the articles are correct. Which accuse him of refusing to return peoples money when asked, he has lived the ultimate personal tragedy. A man of learning and discipline who rolled the dice for a new equity high while compromising anything and everything that you can take to the grave.
well, 5 yr, my question has been, and still is, what exactly is the difference between trend following and buy&hold? i know what the pundits say---cutting losses is the difference--- but, seriously, the gurus of trend following DO NOT seem to ever cut their losses--they survive and sometimes thrive since they buy&hold. if you are down 35 plus percent, you are not cutting your losses and merely using your extensive capital to stay in the game when you are obviously "against the trend". FUrthermore, if these superstars of the trend can't see the trend, evidenced by extensive drawdowns ( being against the trend) how can someone with far less capital and resources expect to find the trend ? JG
are you speaking of JWH? if you are speaking of VN, it's an absurd and unfounded allegation. cite your source or retract. JG