John Henry--The Next Blow Up ??

Indexes. My understanding is that there are some spreads thrown in as well, not just naked outright selling.

 

Very well said. In this business you gotta pick your poison. Anyone who tells you different is probably selling something.

 

Hi Student,

I agree with you, you can make money as long as you are consistent following your "cult". The problem comes when you pretend to be a Trend-Follower and act like a Scalper when taking profits.

Same happens in Baseball, now we have the school of the Moneyballers vs. the Morgans (Joe Morgan) and they are both good. There is a place for both in Baseball.

 

Just to look at this JWH debate with a little more objectivity, I took the list of managers from IASG, stripped out all the entries with zero assets under management (usually indicies), and then ranked them by returns YTD.

The JWH family of funds does tend to cluster around the lower rungs. Even among trendfollowers, I guess some are more equal than others.

Some extra doodling also reveals that returns doesn't really have a strong correlation with fund size (lots of hidden biases here admittedly), although dispersion of returns does.

So the story of the data is in order to get big, keep it tight - the world rewards consistency more than virtousity.

 

Tell me about it. Just look at Toby Crabel over the past decade.

 

Shortswing,

Crabel is a good example. I understand he learnt his craft under Niederhoffer.

 

Many beautiful posts of a live and let live nature, let the farmer and the cowboy be friends have been posted conerning the separate niches and changing fortunres of the trend folllowers and the reversal boys.But let us not stop there. How can these changing cycles a la my namesake be predicted. I propose anecdotally that such a change is occuring at we communicate with dolllar going from down to up, and commodities going from up to down, and gold to up.Why on others the jury is still out but the summer is always tempestuous.May I propose that we let one try to systematize these tendencies iin a spirit of universal harmony without undue reliance on the hope that certain groups will always bounce back and others are destined to chronic blowups?. Sincerely, Profturf. P.S. May I second the encomia that have been awarded to Student and others for some of the more enlightening posts that I have seen in a not uneventful capacity. Profturf

 

thank you, student, for the rankings. many words of wisdom from profturf. the prof sounds like someone who has lived the life and we can all better ourselves by heeding his suggestions. its nice to see you here, doctor!

John Galt's Axe









<i>do you not know that the royal hunting grounds are always forbidden?</i>

 

He aint no professor. He's a professional turf bettor

Someone needs a primer on the "law" of ever changing cycles, lol

I guess: The public can never catch up to the form – or the game ceases.

 

he is a doctor of turf betting. a professor of the science.

nice post!

best,
johngalt'saxe

<i>"several in et's trend ministry practice a fuzzy math"</i>