John Arnold Centaraus

Discussion in 'Trading' started by rmb623, Dec 22, 2009.

  1. EOL is a principal based trading platform, meaning Enron is the buyer (seller) when there
    is seller (buyer) who wants to transact on EOL. EOL provides market liquidity by
    making the bid-ask spread. However making the spread is not the only revenue source for
    running EOL. There is certain information asymmetry beneficial to Enron as the market
    maker:
    • Enron owns EOL trading database that contains detailed information about each
    transactions; trades can be aggregated according to different categories, for
    example, by commodity, by contract maturity, by counter party, by trading time
    interval, just to name a few. The informational advantage will allow us to explore
    market inefficiency and arbitrage across different products.
    • The time series recorded in EOL data base contains valuable information about
    supply-demand balance, market directions and volatilities, market correlations
    and cross-market correlations, trading habits and patterns.
    The EOL Data Mining project is aimed at taking the advantage of the information
    asymmetry and market inefficiency so as to predict the market conditions. The benefit of
    predictability is obvious, especially in the following aspects:
    • Predictability means profit. The ability to predict (even in a statistical sense) will
    give us an edge in trading and risk management.
    • Predictability will enable us to control and reduce the risk of market making.
    Data Ming is a new field that combines the business insights with computer learning
    capabilities. The business insights are translated into certain quantitative state space
    models [1] (most likely non-linear time series models). Then the best model is selected
    deductively to fit the reality the most. A different approach is gaining popularity, that is
    the inductive methodology [2]. The inductive method takes advantage cheap
    computation power and artificial intelligence, builds the prediction model by learning the
    patterns contained in the time series. In the EOL Data Mining project, we will exploit
    both type approaches to build our ultimate Enron Perdition Models.
    [1] Weigend, A. S. & Gershenfeld, N. A. (eds) Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future and Understanding
     
    #11     Dec 23, 2009
  2. rmb623

    rmb623

    Where is this from? They seemed ahead of their time.
     
    #12     Dec 23, 2009
  3. its from the enron Eol information .. google enron EOL. that stand for enron online which was an exchange for traders.. pretty illegal though to be able to run all of those stas on your customers and then play with or against them.. like having transparent cards at a poker game except for your own. Anyone and i mean anyone could have made big money with that type of information
     
    #13     Dec 24, 2009
  4. rmb623

    rmb623


    Then why was it accounting and not the illegality of EOL that brought down Enron?
     
    #14     Dec 24, 2009
  5. i shouldn't even answer this.......but..which one is easier to prosecute...duh
     
    #15     Dec 26, 2009